[ryandrake]

> They clearly did something different

Survivorship bias that results from looking back at the winners. If we asked 1000 people to flip a coin 10 times, probability says one will end up flipping heads 10 times in a row. Looking only backwards after the fact, what did he do different? Is he just a better coin flipper?

There is likely a person in their 20s right now who in 40 years we will look back on because they founded the world's first $100T company. Who is it? If we knew it was deterministic and that some "thing they did" caused success, we would all just do that thing.

[dgfitz]

I think the point is, most people don't even flip the coin, you're making a false equivalence.

[bluefirebrand]

Realistically most people don't get many opportunities to flip the coin

Then many who do get that chance choose not to, they choose a less risky path

It is very few people who even can attempt to flip the coin ten times

And "the 1%" can flip it as many times as they want until it lands on heads 10 times in a row

[ryandrake]

Instead of coin flipping, I look at it like a baseball game:

Most people are never even given an at-bat. They're born without money/opportunity (on the bench), and they will have to stay on the bench for life.

Some working / middle class people get one or two at-bats. They swing and maybe hit the home run, but maybe instead have a safe base hit or they strike out. That was their chance. Afterwards they're out of money/opportunity.

The top 0.1% or so get as many at-bats as they want. Their parents own the team and the ballpark so they just keep swinging until they get their home run, and then spend the rest of the game talking about how life is a meritocracy, and you succeed by being the best.

[dgfitz]

How quickly we forget being teenagers and young adults.

Computers, and knowledge in general, is the the most accessible it’s ever been, in the history of mankind.

So you’re claiming that the trillions of dollars that have been spent trying to uplift the youth of yesteryear were a complete an utter waste?

Or has social media been the somma Huxley was talking about all along?

Nothing stops anyone from reading and learning, having hope for the future, and pursuing it. WhatsApp had a staff of like 15-25 people. Linux wa started by some dork with an idea and a lot of time.

Treating the world like victims that need protecting isn’t the play.

[bluefirebrand]

> So you’re claiming that the trillions of dollars that have been spent trying to uplift the youth of yesteryear were a complete an utter waste

Well, take a look around?

The youth cannot buy homes. They aren't starting families. The wealth gap between the older and younger generations is enormous

Do you really think we have been successful in "uplifting the youth"?

[dgfitz]

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43849966

That’s me, asking the same thing.

[ambicapter]

I think the false equivalence is in your very comment, the point GP is making is that everyone is flipping the coin, just that one guy will get heads 100 times in a row, and the vast majority of people won't.

[layer8]

Most people don’t want to end up in debt in the likely case that the coin-flipping doesn’t succeed.