[elbasti]

I asked a good friend that runs a multi-billion dollar CPG business that relies on China imports. His answer:

> Almost guaranteed.

> There are some categories (toys, pet stuff,computer accessories) where HUGE percentages of goods are made in china. Those shelves will be empty as soon as inventory runs out, which will be soon.

> Shelves would get re-stocked once tariffs are removed and the ships start sailing again.

> If it takes longer than 60 days from now, we're looking at 10s of thousands of bankruptcies. This will make covid look like a weekend at the ritz carlton. Biggest financial crisis since the great depression.

My takeaway: People are not taking this NEARLY seriously enough.

My tinfoil hat interpretation: The US govt knows how serious this is, and they know that if people panic (which honestly, they fucking should) it increases China's leverage substantially.

[anigbrowl]

>GPG business

what does that mean

[elbasti]

Sorry, it was a typo (now corrected). I meant to type "CPG" (Consumer Packaged Goods). Ie, stuff they sell in supermarket aisles that is not food.

[anigbrowl]

Thanks! I was super confused, as there are several corporations with generic-sounding names that shorten to GPG.

I agree with your points btw. My friend is a retail director specializing in this area and has been at pains to educate me (and anyone else willing to listen) on the depth and severity of the impending supply dislocation.