[toomuchtodo]

> There is always a great deal of political heat around minimum wage increases, largely driven by concerns about job losses. After a minimum wage increase, the story goes, many employers will not be able to afford to pay their workers the new higher minimum wage and will therefore shrink their payrolls. If these job losses are large enough, they could even swamp the higher wages and lead to lower overall wage income for the entire group of affected workers.

> Actual evidence shows that this narrative is largely wrong. A new review that I co-authored with Arindrajit Dube finds that most minimum wage studies find no job losses or only small disemployment effects. In other words, the vast majority of minimum wage research implies that minimum wage policies have unambiguously raised the total earnings of low-wage workers.

> This conclusion is strengthened by focusing on the studies that examine broad groups of low-wage workers or the overall workforce, not just narrow segments like teenagers. As the figure below shows, the median employment response is essentially zero among these more comprehensive studies, with 90% of these studies finding no or only small disemployment effects.

Most minimum wage studies have found little or no job loss - https://www.epi.org/blog/most-minimum-wage-studies-have-foun...

Own-Wage Elasticity: Quantifying the Impact of Minimum Wages on Employment - https://www.nber.org/papers/w32925 | https://doi.org/10.3386/w32925

Repository of underlying data for the claim: https://economic.github.io/owe/

[sarchertech]

> 90% of these studies finding no or only small disemployment effects.

That’s what you’d expect though if the studied minimum wage increases were too small to meaningfully impact the labor market, which mostly seems to be the case from randomly spot checking a few of the underlying studies.

For example roughly 0.15% of the workforce currently makes $7.25 an hour. McDonald’s in low cost of living areas starts out closer to $15.

So if you raise the minimum wage to $8. You’ll see “small unemployment effects.”

If you raised it to $20, you’ll see much larger unemployment effects. But legislators know this is the case so they don’t tend to raise minimum wages by amounts that will cause large unemployment effects.

So of course most studies of real world minimum wage increases don’t show large unemployment effects.

Personally I think a negative income tax is a much more efficient and fair means of accomplishing the same goal.