[throw310822]

Dockworkers, logistics, truck delivery drivers, warehouse workers, etc.

On the other hand, I guess it might be a great time for small shops and businesses that produce low to medium tech stuff- from crafts, clothing and furniture to electronics. Even if the country's going to suffer they should profit handsomely (which is not a bad thing per se).

[bitmasher9]

Except those businesses relay heavily on imported materials. For example, no one is weaving cotton into fabric in the US at any scale.

[rad_gruchalski]

Well… it’s the best time to start? I guess that’s what the MAGA Sun is hoping for.

[Aurornis]

It’s actually not. If you’re starting a business right now with the goal of selling to customers all over the world, setting up shop in America is not looking good. You’d pay exorbitant tariffs on inputs and machines.

It’s better to manufacture out of the country and let US consumers eat the tariff cost on import while keeping your operations efficient outside of the US tariff zone.

It’s an extraordinarily poorly planned policy.

[Someone]

> If you’re starting a business right now with the goal of selling to customers all over the world

If you do that now in the USA, there’s a fairly large risk that your exports will be taxed, and, with exports to the USA tanking, there’s excess production in the rest parts of the world, so prices will go down outside the USA, at least temporarily.

⇒ If you’re starting a business in the USA today, you should only aim for the domestic market.

[rad_gruchalski]

Well… what can I tell you. Talk to your president regarding dismantling your country? It’s not difficult to figure out that I‘m being sarcastic.

What I‘m saying is: the problem sits in the white house.

[slavik81]

I want to believe that, but the president is not doing this by himself. His was re-elected democratically by a majority of voters, and he enjoys the support of the house, the senate, and the federal courts. I fear that the problem lies in the hearts and minds of the American people.

As a Canadian, it has been hard to stomach. I thought we were brothers working together towards a common future. It would be a lot less heartbreaking if this really was caused by a single individual.

[dylan604]

That's not what MAGA world wants though. They want products made here, sold here, bought here. MAGA world does not care about the rest of what the world's people do. If they want to buy our stuff, great, but then blame other governments for taxing American products like there's no blame to share.

[disgruntledphd2]

Sure, but in that case, tariffs on finished goods are the way to go. You'll first recover the assembly business and then over time you could reshore more of the inputs.

But like, it's not the 1950s anymore, basically every product consists of parts from all over the world.

You can't unpick that in 90 days.

[throw310822]

> with the goal of selling to customers all over the world

No, I think you're missing the point. This is not to create world-class companies, capable of selling abroad. This is to inject money and optimism in small, local, antiquated businesses that have been long priced out of any competition with the rest of the world.

[rtkwe]

Who's going to invest in a business that's only profitable as long as we keep these insane tariff level up and will take several years to spin up? (Plus where are they going to get the machines to do the actual work? Those are being tariffed too!)

[rad_gruchalski]

I don’t know. Maybe MAGA Sun knows.

[zelda420]

Unfortunately the largest cotton producing country is china, followed by India.

My grandparents actually worked and met at a denim factory in west Texas which was renowned for its cotton production. Growing up I remember giant cotton fields which have all been replaced with strip malls and sprawl.

It’s going to be a multi-year project at the very least. And even then probably still cheaper to make clothes in Vietnam.

[rad_gruchalski]

> It’s going to be a multi-year project

But that’s what MAGA wants and Trump clearly, like Putin, doesn’t want to go anywhere so maybe start now? I can see, like you, how tragically comedic this situation is.

[esseph]

Won't happen.

Takes years, decades to build or rebuild new industries.

[pixl97]

Yea, the bank is just going to love to hand out money with the amount of political and economic uncertainty injected into the system....

[rad_gruchalski]

If the bank can not finance your stuff maybe Trump knows some people who can borrow you money? On preferential conditions, of course… who knows, maybe he gets into loan business himself.

[_joel]

Even their hats are made in China.

[ajmurmann]

Cool, so in a year or three the fabric factory would be up and running. Oh wait, we need to first build a factory for the machines we need in the fabric factory...

[rad_gruchalski]

Well… that’s exactly what I mean. But you guys have chosen a president.

[vjvjvjvjghv]

If anything it will be very short term. Nobody knows where this is going so it would be suicidal for small businesses to scale up. Large companies have the reserves but little guys don’t. I am very worried that this will lead to another dying of small businesses like happened during COVID.

[Aurornis]

> On the other hand, I guess it might be a great time for small shops and businesses that produce low to medium tech stuff- from crafts, clothing and furniture to electronics.

Absolutely not. All of the small businesses I know are getting crushed by tariffs.

Electronics especially. With 125% tariffs on everyone from China, prices just exploded.

Even domestic PCB manufacturers prices and lead times have shot up due to demand.

It’s extremely bad. I don’t think people realize how devastating this is to company that couldn’t amass huge inventories prior to tariffs arriving and can’t lobby the Trump administration for an exemption.

[throw310822]

I didn't mean that this is going to be a net positive or even better than disastrous. I'm just saying that if you already have a small business in the US making stuff that was hard to sell locally given the cheaper competition from abroad, people will have no choice but come to you.

> Even domestic PCB manufacturers prices and lead times have shot up due to demand.

Exactly this, I bet those PCB manufacturers are quite happy. Some of their employees might get the idea of setting up a new business, too.

[Aurornis]

> if you already have a small business in the US making stuff that was hard to sell locally given the cheaper competition from abroad, people will have no choice but come to you.

Not true for many businesses. It’s common to have some inputs or machinery that is imported. Maybe you can win while you’re working through inventory and your machines aren’t breaking down, but if your COGS also go up with tariffs then it might not be a clear win.

[nebula8804]

>I didn't mean that this is going to be a net positive or even better than disastrous. I'm just saying that if you already have a small business in the US making stuff that was hard to sell locally given the cheaper competition from abroad, people will have no choice but come to you.

Unless those businesses have inputs that rely on China...which many do, those guys are going under.

>Exactly this, I bet those PCB manufacturers are quite happy. Some of their employees might get the idea of setting up a new business, too.

Those US PCB manufacturers didn't care for that business before, they focus on getting fat government or industrial contracts. The reason China was so consumer focused was because they have so much capacity that they must be friendly to my dinky $5 order. Furthermore consider that with 1.4 billion people, there are so many engineers that its extremely cutthroat. You then have a scenario where they assign an engineer to look at my dinky little $5 order because they can.

[anigbrowl]

It depends what sort of demand there is for your product. If it's an essential and you can bring it in at a good price, your business might jump. If it's discretionary and is the sort of thing people postpone buying due to recession, not so much.