[benlivengood]

You have to be careful to include incentives in the analysis of crowd opinions. Markets make it easy; likely everyone else buying and selling in the market wants to at least preserve the value of their investment and most are hoping to make money. Few are willing to risk catastrophic loss.

When it's politics (voting or polls or horsetrading) or other choices that are more complexly connected to particular outcomes then market-like assumptions about the averages make less sense. E.g. pollsters have known for decades that they can't simply publish the mean average of polling results and expect them to be calibrated at predicting elections; there are many strange biases (including sampling) at play.

Dating relies on different metrics for attraction between individuals (there isn't actually a universal attractiveness 'currency' to price people with), preferences about children and lifestyle factor heavily, and monogamous dating has complexities from scarcity mindset (optimal stopping among others).