[oceanplexian]

I agree but the reason it won’t be an apocalypse is the same reason economists get most things wrong, it’s not an efficient market.

Relatively speaking we live in a bubble, there are still broad swaths of the economy that operate with pen and paper. Another broad swath that migrated off 1980s era AS/400 in the last few years. Even if we had ASI available literally today (And we don’t) I’d give it 20-30 years until the guy that operates your corner market or the local auto repair shop has any use in the world for it.

[bonoboTP]

I had predicted the same about websites, social media presence, Google maps presence etc. back 10-15 years ago, but lo and behold, even the small burger place hole-on-a-wall in rural eastern Europe is now on Google maps with reviews, and even answers by the owner, a facebook page with info on changes of opening hours etc. I'd have said there's no way that fat 60 year old guy will get up to date with online stuff.

But gradually they were forced to.

If there are enough auto repair shops that can just diagnose and process n times more cars in a day, it will absolutely force people to adopt it as well, whether they like the aesthetics or not, whether they feel like learning new things or not. Suddenly they will be super interested in how to use it, regardless of how they were boasting about being old school and hands-on beforehand.

If a technology gives enough boost to productivity, there's simply no way for inertia to hold it back, outside of the most strictly regulated fields, such as medicine, which I do expect to lag behind by some years, but will have to catch up once the benefits are clear in lower-stakes industries and there's immense demand on it that politicians will be forced to crush the doctor's cartel's grip on things.

[concordDance]

This doesn't apply to literal ASI, mostly because copy-pasteable intelligence is an absolute gamechanger, particularly if the physical interaction problems that prevent exponential growth (think autonomous robot factory) are solved (which I'd assume a full ASI could do).

People keep comparing to other tools, but a real ASI would be an agent, so the right metaphor is not the effect of the industrial revolution on workers, but the effect of the internal combustion engine on the horse.