[echelon]

> While the H100 generation likely represents peak pricing power (new B200s have lower margins and higher COGS), an immediate lack of alternatives means they’ll continue to print cash.

That's not a trend yet. We're about to enter an era where most media is generated. Demand is only going to go up, and margins may not matter if volume goes up.

> The open question is long-term (>6yrs) durability1. Hyperscalers (Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta) are aggressively consolidating AI demand to become the dominant consumers of AI accelerators; while developing competitive, highly-credible chip efforts.

Hyperscalers aren't the only players building large GPU farms. There are large foundation model companies doing it too, and there are also new clouds that offer compute outside of the hyperscaler offerings (CoreWeave, Lambda, and dozens of others). Granted, these may be a drop in the bucket and hyperscalers may still win this trend.

[thot_experiment]

Most media might be generated, but it remains to be seen whether most media that people will pay for will be generated.

[echelon]

You don't pay for Facebook, Instagram, Reddit, TikTok. Most don't pay for YouTube.

But to your point, Disney is using GenAI in their new live action Moana film. Presumably that'll do lots of sales.

[thot_experiment]

You do absolutely pay for all those things with your attention, if genAI content doesn't hold people's attention then your ad space will be cheap.

> Disney is using genAI in their new live action Moana film

If this is your bar then sure, but I think the interesting question is when/if we cross into a regime where mostly self-managed genAI is in true competition with the media you consume day to day. Not something that's hundreds of thousands of person hours being enhanced by genAI. I don't think there's any chance we see a total collapse of demand for this stuff but I think the jury is still out on how valuable it truly is imo.

I'm sure it's non zero and I expect demand will continue to rise, but it may plateau or slow sooner than people think, I just don't think we can clearly say yet.