[Jensson]

> IMO if you took gemini2.5 / claude / o3 and showed it to people from ten / twenty years ago, they'd say that it is unmistakably AGI.

No they wouldn't, since those still can't replace human white collar workers even at many very basic tasks.

Once AGI is here most white collar jobs are gone, you'd only need to hire geniuses at most.

[zaptrem]

Which part of "General Intelligence" requires replacing white collar workers? A middle schooler has general intelligence (they know about and can do a lot of things across a lot of different areas) but they likely can't replace white collar workers either. IMO GPT-3 was AGI, just a pretty crappy one.

[Jensson]

> A middle schooler has general intelligence (they know about and can do a lot of things across a lot of different areas) but they likely can't replace white collar workers either.

Middle schoolers replace white collars workers all the time, it takes 10 years for them to do it but they can do it.

No current model can do the same since they aren't able to learn over time like a middle schooler.

[sebastiennight]

Compared to someone who graduated middle school on November 30th, 2022 (2.5 years ago, would you say that today's gemini 2.5 pro has NOT gained intelligence faster?

I mean, if you're a CEO or middle manager and you have the choice of hiring this middle schooler for general office work, or today's gemini-2.5-pro, are you 100% saying the ex-middle-schooler is definitely going to give you best bang for your buck?

Assuming you can either pay them $100k a year, or spend the $100k on gemini inference.

[Jensson]

> would you say that today's gemini 2.5 pro has NOT gained intelligence faster?

Gemini 2.5 pro the model has not gained any intelligence since it is a static model.

New models are not the models learning, it is humans creating new models. The models trained has access to all the same material and knowledge a middle schooler has as they go on to learn how to do a job, yet they fail to learn the job while the kid succeeds.

[ben_w]

> Gemini 2.5 pro the model has not gained any intelligence since it is a static model.

Surely that's an irrelevant distinction, from the point of view of a hiring manager?

If a kid takes ten years from middle school to being worth hiring, then the question is "what new AI do you expect will exist in 10 years?"

How the model comes to be, doesn't matter. Is it a fine tune on more training data from your company docs and/or an extra decade of the internet? A different architecture? A different lab in a different country?

Doesn't matter.

Doesn't matter for the same reason you didn't hire the kid immediately out of middle school, and hired someone else who had already had another decade to learn more in the meantime.

Doesn't matter for the same reason that different flesh humans aren't perfectly substitutable.

You pay to solve a problem, not to specifically have a human solve it. Today, not in ten years when today's middle schooler graduates from university.

And that's even though I agree that AI today doesn't learn effectively from as few examples as humans need.

[Jensson]

> Surely that's an irrelevant distinction, from the point of view of a hiring manager?

Stop moving the goalposts closer, that you think humans might make an AGI in the future doesn't mean the current AI is an AGI just because it uses the same interface.

[sebastiennight]

This argument needlessly anthropomorphizes the models. They are not humans nor living entities, they are systems.

So, fine, the gemini-2.5-pro model hasn't gotten more intelligent. What about the "Google AI Studio API" as a system? Or the "OpenAI chat completions API" as a system?

This system has definitely gotten vastly smarter based on the input it's gotten. Would you now concede, that if we look at the API-level (which, by the way, is the way you as the employer do interact with it) then this entity has gotten smarter way faster than the middle-schooler in the last 2.5 years?

[Jensson]

But its the AI researchers that made it smarter, it isn't a self contained system like a child. If you fired the people maintaining it and it just interacted with people it would stop improving.

[ac29]

> Gemini 2.5 pro the model has not gained any intelligence since it is a static model.

Aren't all the people interacting with it on aistudio helping the next Gemini model learn though?

Sure, the results of that wont be available until the next model is released, but it seems to me that human interaction/feedback is actually a vital part of LLM training.

[Jensson]

It wont get smart enough without the researchers making architectural updates though, current architecture wont learn to become a white collar worker just from user feedback.