[tim333]

For me Ralph Baric's 2024 test testimony moved the lab leak hypothesis to pretty likely. I think that's probably "since then" depending on when then is exactly.

Also the 2023 "so friggin likely" messages. There has been various stuff dragged out into public by the court actions, leaks and subpoenas that are the hallmark of open science.

[therealpygon]

And yet the CIA still maintains a low confidence, who would clearly have more information than either of us, despite being directed to back that ploy. Wonder why.

[tim333]

Dunno. There's a lot of politics in what all US government funded bodies say. The US after all were heavily involved with the lab research.

The Germans don't have much bias here and recently:

>Germany's foreign intelligence service believed there was a 80-90% chance that coronavirus accidentally leaked from a Chinese lab, German media say. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz7vypq31z7o

which is roughly the odds I'd guess too.

[therealpygon]

Sure, you can try to find supporting opinions on any topic. In either case, whether it was a lab leak or not, it’s not like anything would be different. Nor does it matter, given that the modifying strains for pathogens for research purposes is what every research lab does, because that is what virology is. If you recall, this is the same COVID that Trump and his followers said “does not exist”, then “was nothing more than a common cold”, was “no more deadly than the flu”, could be cured with a dewormer, that masks don’t help despite it being universally known that it does, so on and so forth. For those same people then to try to use the opposite of that misinformation they were spreading as a dunk now is comically hypocritical, as can be expected from MAGA/Trump.

[tim333]

>Nor does it matter

There is the matter of trying to prevent the next one. It kind of looks like there were other incidents around the WIV before covid 19 and it was a systemic issue of dangerous research without proper safeguards, and I doubt the WIV was the only lab at it.

There's a bit of an issue that if a researcher makes some dangerous new virus in the lab they get an interesting paper out of it, maybe tenure, and don't worry very much about that it could kill a million people in the one in a thousand chance it escapes. But a one in a thousand chance of a million deaths is still a statistical expectation of a thousand deaths.

[therealpygon]

It happens several times a year in the US alone, often unreported, and about 100 times a year worldwide. I don’t disagree that every lab can have improved precautions. I know I for one am encouraged by how focused the conversation is on improving domestic lab safety and encouraging our global community to introduce stricter controls by… checks notes …staring a trade war with them, firing staff in various related agencies, decreasing research funding, decreasing health department staff, and decreasing oversight while…checks notes agains …blaming Biden. I’m shocked by how the new administration is so capable of honing in on the root of problems.