[audunw]

I find it odd that, in very few of the articles that take a positive view on Chinas outlook in this trade war is it mentioned that China is knee deep in debt (when shadow debt is included) and very dependent on exports to avoid catastrophe.

It could still turn out well for China. It’s just that this risk should be mentioned. Otherwise it’s easy to believe that Chinas win here is inevitable.

[marcosdumay]

> and very dependent on exports to avoid catastrophe

Domestic debt (in the country's own currency) behaves differently from foreign debt.

Domestic one is the kind that is actually never paid out, unless the government does something very stupid.

China has other kinds of problems, and the article has the same kind of simplistic mercantilist view of the world that journalists seem very adept to and that the current US government is applying. So, while there are stuff to be said about them, you won't get anything of value here.

[Tireings]

It has massive resources and exports to everyone around the globe.

USA is alienating everyone including Canada.

So who wins that game?

[nabla9]

I don't think it's odd.

(1) Chinese debt is internal.

(2) China is still ideologically communist authoritarian nation with market economy.

They can fix thing by fiat. No need to think about legal issues or respect property right. They can give X% haircut for bad debt, or freeze debt payments for 5 years for debts they think are destabilizing the economy. They don't have to give same treatment to all debt.

Demographics is the problem for China in long term, not debt.

[rfoo]

Plus that they finally have someone else to blame, and it seems like people want to pretend it's all someone else's fault too. Probably don't even need to use their authoritarian cards.

[asplake]

Demographics is a problem for the US also, but the easiest solution, immigration, is no longer acceptable (if ever it was) to an increasingly vocal minority. To be fair to the US, that situation is shared by many other countries in the West, and I'm not sure that China is ready for that solution either.

[Jensson]

Illegal immigration is a bipartisan issue both democrat and republican voters want to kick them out, it isn't some vocal minority.

Billionaires wants them here, not poor people.

[ethbr1]

> Billionaires wants them here, not poor people.

Given poor people are more dependent on welfare and social security (having no plan B, like wealthy folks do), they should be the ones most in favor of population (and therefore economic) growth.

[DontchaKnowit]

Except illegal immigrants arent paying into social security... so whats your point

[ethbr1]

Illegal immigrants aren't getting social security either, but are paying into sales tax.

Which means they're doing their part to support 30% of state budgets, in addition to the businesses they're working for who are paying their own taxes.

[greenie_beans]

if the goal of the trade war is to hurt china through their debt situation, then how would that not affect the entire global system? china default sounds bad