[bluGill]

Vietnam is making moves in directions I want to encourage. Only God knows the future and he isn't talking. (there are some who will disagree with various parts of that statement, but they have offered no evidence that they get useful information on the future.

Vietnam has been at war with China in the recent past. Today China is claiming seas that the US and internal law both call Vietnam's territorial waters - though currently they are not at war. Thus even if Vietnam doesn't move in a good direction, just keeping them where they are (as opposed to supporting China) is useful if only because all indications today are China will start a war in the future. (again nobody knows if they will, but they are preparing as if they will)

Nothing prevents anyone from making moves 20 years from now that are bad. All we can do today is encourage those who seem to be moving for the better. We have no clue how things will turn out. Even when we make what in hindsight now looks like a bad decision, we have no idea how it would have been if we had done something different.

[constantcrying]

>Vietnam is making moves in directions I want to encourage.

Just like China did? They had a whole phase of economic liberalization and opening trade.

>Nothing prevents anyone from making moves 20 years from now that are bad.

Vietnam is literally another communist pseudo-dictatorship. Their place in the world is obviously far more ambiguous than that of e.g. England. The idea of shifting manufacturing to Vietnam because you do not like the positions of China is just absurd.

>All we can do today is encourage those who seem to be moving for the better.

Why should the US not focus on supporting long term allies who aren't communist single party states?

[bluGill]

20 years ago China looked to be going in the right direction. However things change. If they get rid of their dictator I might again support them - depending of course on how they change.

we should of course support most of europe which usualy has better government. Likewise the other countries in America - both north and south. And so on for anywhere else we can find friends. I an not a Trump fan even if once in a while he does something I support

[constantcrying]

What does support mean? Ship most of our manufacturing there or politely meet their political leadership once a year?

[bluGill]

Free trade. So their ecconomy grows and with it edutated people who can afford to see the world and in turn how thep have been lied to.

[constantcrying]

>So their ecconomy grows and with it edutated people who can afford to see the world and in turn how thep have been lied to.

As has happened with China? When they opened up trade and became part of a global economy their nationalistic ambitions stopped and they ceased to support dictatorships like Russia. Also their political system opened up and they morphed from a uniparty communist country to a liberal democracy. Oh wait, the exact opposite happened on all accounts.

You didn't answer my question. Why would Vietnam be any different? Why should the US help build their economy so that they can do the exact same thing as China did. Your theory of how this works is disproven by reality. You can not make a country a liberal democracy by opening up trade with them. It failed with China, it failed with Russia.

[seanmcdirmid]

The irony is that China was actually against Russia into the 90s (Sino Soviet split was still on), and nationalism was taboo also because too many people were burned by the cultural revolution. Changes were made after 1989 to encourage more nationalism, and that all culminates with Xi (China and Russia are still frenemies, but mutual antagonism with the USA has brought them closer).

[bluGill]

> You can not make a country a liberal democracy by opening up trade with them. It failed with China, it failed with Russia.

It worked with South Korea, and Taiwan. (Japan and Germany, but they were on the losing side of a war with us which is a confounding factor). It is by no means perfect, but I've yet to see anyone suggest something else that has any chance of working.