[bloppe]

I agree that OpenAI is not technically a single point of failure because if it were to disappear, then all the companies that depend on it could simply switch to Gemini or Deepseek or Llama, etc. It's been well established that they have no moat and there are no significant barriers to switching.

I think the author is essentially using OpenAI as a synechdoche for the entire AI industry. Essentially every AI company is reliant on frequent, massive cash infusions to stay alive, and if the money starts drying up for OAI, it will dry up for everyone else as well. The author persuasively argues that OAI will need ~40B per year to stay alive through the end of the decade. Let's assume that the whole industry combined will need something closer to 100B. Assuming that faucet will stay open that long is seems pretty crazy to me.