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by killjoywashere 438 days ago
I do think there's an interesting conversation to have here though about workforce management, as someone who lives in adjacent worlds.

If you are long term greedy, like China, a great strategy to capture dominance of a discipline would be along the lines of how to boil a frog. Start by sending grad students to the top universities, ensuring they work for the PIs for cheap, bring as many of them back to China as you can, but tolerate a leaky return path so as not to stir up notice. Advertize their high post-training employment rate back to the universities to keep their valves open even as you start developing your universities internally, and eventually throttle down the outbound grad student pipeline. At some point after it's too late, the top universities, and their countries, look around, bemoan the lack of people in their discipline, and then just give up because by now they're old and tired.

Seems like something that has happened in chemistry, physics, and EE for sure. Once you start thinking this way, all sorts of things start making sense. Like maybe they looked at solar as a cheap, low threat point of entry for developing silicon fabrication capabilities. Software engineering, being a relatively soft skill, comes along for the ride.

Not sure about other fields, but if AI can take on a rapidly increasing set of fields, you start seeing this as how China primarily harvests not IP but workforce training from the global West, then technologies happen to fall out, then one day China has solved for their own graying work force at the same time they've solved for global economic dominance.

And a non-trivial contributor was the US governments (I blame the states too) defunding education.

1 comments

This is an interesting suggestion. I'm curious what you mean by "sending grad students to top universities": 1.) the target universities have to accept the students, right? 2.) This implies some top-level RTS-game-esque control of the grad students when, in reality, they're making independent choices (albeit influenced by many factors, including govt promotion) 3.) Seems like the rational decision for ambitious grad students is to apply to said top universities (which may just happen to be abroad).

Same for "bringing many of them back": I read it at first like it was akin to some sort of spy agent network when in reality "bringing back" probably means various incentives, not some forced thing. Carrot, instead of stick.

1) target universities have to accept the students

Yes! Which the US incentivizes by a) underfunding K-12 education, reducing the internal applicant pool, b) competing grants in a way that incentivizes PIs to grasp for cheap labor. Additionally, the individual states also incentivize this. Look at the UC's own statistics: since 2009 the highest chance of acceptance goes to foreign, ethnically Asian applicants. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20321493

2) RTS-game-esque control of the grad students

Yes! Having been in the room when one of those grad students got a very stressful call from home (like broke down crying multiple times), it's definitely not all carrots. And the removal of carrots eventually looks like a stick.

3) Seems like the rational decision for ambitious grad students

Yes! No amplification needed.