[magicreadu]

Both you and OP are not looking at this from the right angle. The goal here is to decouple US from China. In the meantime, tariffs are raised on every country to gauge which side they are on. Once US knows who the allies are, they will negotiate to have those allies put up massive tariffs on China as well to prevent transshipping.

US wants nothing to do with China. As the biggest consumer economy in the world, the have that right.

And China has shown that agreement with them has no value. Remember that China promised trump in term 1 to massively import US goods and reduce fentanyl, in part to slow trumps tariff down. They did neither of those things. Trump hasn’t forgotten that.

[MVissers]

Decoupling from China will lead to China annex Taiwan sooner. China will have the USA and the world by the balls then, so not sure we want that to happen quicker.

And I don't think anyone is calling themselves allies of the USA right now. The whole world is looking to decouple from the USA. Europe is completely over the USA, they can't rely on them for leadership, protection or for trade.

From a tech perspective, expect Europe to decouple from the USA from an economic and cultural perspective in the next decade. Smartest thing Europe can do is to create alternatives to US services, build its own defense industry and stop looking at the USA for any leadership.

[permo-w]

is TSMC not currently building a plant in the US? and ASML are Dutch, so they're not at risk. I’m not saying that China taking Taiwan wouldn't be a massive strategic boon, but I don't think it would be "having the world by the balls" by any means

[anigbrowl]

I suggest reading this before getting too excited about shiny new manufacturing plants that will require years to stand up.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/money/business/2023/03/23/wha...

[DougMerritt]

TSMC has not committed to a US plant that applies their most advanced technology. Currently, they are going to produce chips with larger slower features, some generations behind their state of the art -- that's commercially very useful, and a good idea, but in no way replaces the state of the art chips that they produce in Taiwan. Alas.

[nsteel]

I think the last 6 years have shown how shakey electronics supply chains are. One factory in the US isn't going to come close to avoiding chaos.

[robocat]

A knowledge economy depends on information. TSMC will keep key knowledge within Taiwan as part of their Silicon Shield[1].

Look closely at a business you know well and notice how much the profits depend upon information in people's heads.

Everything runs on a combination of money (capitalist profits) and non-money gains (other gains that people really care about).

[1] https://duckduckgo.com/?q=tsmc+silicon+shield

[permo-w]

do you not think that if China invaded Taiwan, the top minds there would just leave and go elsewhere? the machines they use are built in the Netherlands. I know it's not quite as simple as that, but I don't think it'd be the end of the world like people are saying. I think worse would be the precedent it would set.

[robocat]

Other companies have the same EUV machines. TSMC also made the good decision in hindsight to make an early bet on those machines.

We know TSMC is dominant - the real knowledge of how they are doing that is in the heads of people working at TSMC. Or maybe better to say that something is missing from the competitors? Process? Management? Everything?

Cadence and Synopsys are US companies that need to know many of the technical parameters of TSMC processes. They might know more.

Intel's Tick–tock model has lost it's tick. https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Tick%E2%80%93tock_model

[permo-w]

well then the question remains to be: where do the loyalties of TSMC lie, and where do the loyalties of its employees lie?

[absolutelastone]

I think it's three at this point? With the first one coming online this year.

[pfannkuchen]

America only cared about Taiwan because it warehoused the exiled American friendly government that had a historical claim to power and could potentially be reinstalled.

As time goes on that becomes less and less relevant. Might be time to cut and run.

[roenxi]

> Decoupling from China will lead to China annex Taiwan sooner. China will have the USA and the world by the balls then, so not sure we want that to happen quicker.

That seems to be over-rating the importance of Taiwan. If Taiwan sank into the sea tomorrow that'd be a catastrophe and the world would be worse off. But not that badly worse off. Life would continue. China's main global lever comes from the power of their unparalleled-in-history industrial strength and the aura of leadership they are building up internationally because they are substantially more peaceful than the US.

The peacefulness is probably not going to last, unfortunately, but until they change tack it is what it is.

[0dayz]

Ah so now we shouldn't give a shit about country let alone a democratic country being invaded.

Why not turn America then into a nuclear testing site? Since democracies aren't important.

[ta20240528]

"Ah so now we shouldn't give a shit about country let alone a democratic country being invaded."

After the US's abandonment of Ukraine, I'd say you are well past worrying about that.

[defrost]

No need, the United States of America already has more surface and underground nuclear test locations than any other nation on earth (IIRC), even more if atmospheric tests are included as those drifted fallout onto US ground surface.

  There have been 2,121 tests done since the first in July 1945, involving 2,476 nuclear devices

~ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests

Of these, one thousand and thirty two have been US tests (not all within the mainland contiguous USofA).

Air imagery of Yucca Flat looks like a bad case of acne, it's riddled with pockmark craters from underground nuclear tests.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yucca_Flat

  has been called "the most irradiated, nuclear-blasted spot on the face of the earth".

  In March 2009, TIME identified the 1970 Yucca Flat Baneberry Test, where 86 workers were exposed to radiation, as one of the world's worst nuclear disasters.

[wonderwonder]

"The goal here is to decouple US from China. In the meantime, tariffs are raised on every country to gauge which side they are on. Once US knows who the allies are, they will negotiate to have those allies put up massive tariffs on China as well to prevent transshipping." You literally made this up. There has been no announcement about this from the admin. Its all just speculation.

[SirMaster]

Isn't this what the press secretary said today?

[mrguyorama]

Seeing as there is near total disconnect between what this admin says and what it demonstrably does (let alone the disconnect from reality entirely), why would anyone take anything they say at face value?

There is zero signal coming from any of these folk's mouths.

[wonderwonder]

I'm honestly not sure, I kind of tuned out after I saw her lecturing the press on the art of the deal.

[feyman_r]

>>> US wants nothing to do with China. As the biggest consumer economy in the world, the have that right.

Yes, they have the right, but it doesn’t mean this is the right way. Consumers don’t suddenly stop consuming, and factories in the world don’t immediately start producing. This is like a slow flywheel; had we been almost spinning and ready to jump, it would make sense. This is not that.

Also, China is a super power which controls more than factories today. I agree they need to be checked, but sudden changes are not the way. I wish we did it by building trust with allies and then pushing China. Right now, even our allies are wary of us.

[timeon]

Isn't this bit naive? Because in order to decouple, one would expect that there would be policies to actually prepare for production inside US and then apply tariffs. Not other way around.

[rat87]

If the goal was to decouple from China then tarrifs would only be on China and we would encourage trade to move from China to other countries. The administrations actions have the opposite effect. It says the US is untrustworthy even to it's allies and maybe siding with China is not so bad. Note I don't like or trust the Chinese government and don't think other governments should try to get closer to them but Trump's actions make such moves much more likely

[autoexec]

At the very least any nation that depends on the US for goods should probably be looking to other sources where possible and increasing support for them since even if the US is useful for now, we're clearly unstable and incompetent which makes us unreliable and risky.

[8note]

ir would be china, and also countries that route chinese goods into the US

[tail_exchange]

> In the meantime, tariffs are raised on every country to gauge which side they are on

Why on earth would you be on the side of a country like this? Why we should be an ally of the US right now, if Trump can't even uphold agreements he signed himself 5 years ago? What guarantees do we have that, as soon as we decouple from China, the US won't treat us as a vassal because we gave up our only alternative? The only rational choice is to either be neutral or ally with China.

[Fade_Dance]

It looks like the consensus response is other countries embracing more multilateralism. This is a huge opportunity for proponents and governments that promote multilateralism to take charge and make it happen. Ex: China has restricted trade with Aus since 2020 because they, essentially, insulted China/didn't restrict their speech in ways that China wanted. This provides an opportunity for this to be rolled back, which is economically win-win (as most free trade is). Expect to see this sort of thing many times over between many countries in the world. Of course this is rooted in the fact that having ex-US trading partners is no significantly more valuable.

There is the second point to mention too though, which is that China is not exactly an exemplar of open markets and free trade, which is why you are not seeing many countries ally with China and form a united front against the US's trade rampage. Looking beyond the deranged policies, there are some truths in saying that China is a currency manipulator, has imbalanced trade to such a degree it causes problems in other economies, and even the somewhat more "far fetched" points about the unsustainability of a permanent trade deficit do have some truth on some level.

That is why, yes, you are seeing the EU normalize trade relations with China, but there are important caveats, like discussions about China having an expert quota and even internally capping production numbers within their own economy are on the table front and center. This would have never happened before, because China's strategy was to peg a low currency, export, and extinguish industries ex-China. Wish to some level is part of free trade, but it is underpinned in China with state sponsorship to a higher degrees in most trading partners are comfortable with (which is of course countered by the allure of cheap goods).

So another view would be that parties like the EU have new leverage against China that they can use to cut trade deals that strip out some of the abusive practices that made them uncomfortable in the past. If China is then willing to move on a bit from these approaches then the net outcome should be beneficial for the world of course.

I think that many players see the dangers of taking binary sides now more than ever. And indeed, skilled negotiators should see the advantages of playing these forces against each other to get what is best for them. In the face of the recent outrageous events, I would expect a sudden outburst of pragmatism elsewhere.

[threeseed]

> In the meantime, tariffs are raised on every country to gauge which side they are on

Tariffs were raised on Australia, UK, New Zealand and Canada.

It's asinine to say that you can trust these countries with your most secret intelligence (Five Eyes) but not enough to say treat them as allies.

[defrost]

As an Australian who has spent decades watching the trade and resources markets it was notable that Australia, NZ, UK, Canada, and much of the world started taking calls from China and meetings with ambassadors.

The Trump plan to "decouple from China" was verging on dividing the world into the US and everybody else .. a large reason behind the partial rollback.

Countries are now openly rejecting China's offer to join hands .. but still sitting on the possibility of further deals with China should the US tariff insanity continue.

[smileysteve]

Also, the amount of badmouthing of Japan, Korea, Germany... Especially car companies which have built plants in America.

[defrost]

> Remember that China promised trump in term 1 to massively import US goods and reduce fentanyl

China stopped selling unlicensed fentanyl to the USofA, it later stopped supplying fentanyl to both Mexico and Canada.

The problem was that criminals in the USofA and Mexico purchased precursor chemicals in bulk and made their own fentanyl. Restricting precursors led to pre-precursors being purchased in bulk for drug labs to make their own precursors in order to make fentanyl.

The fentanyl problem continued under Trump and rapidly grew in size during his first term.

  In 2021, Mr. Biden issued an executive order imposing sanctions on individuals and companies engaged in the illicit opioid trade. His Treasury Department put sanctions on more than 300 individuals and entities, freezing entire networks of fentanyl suppliers and traffickers out of the international financial system.

  In 2023 and 2024 he identified China as a major illicit drug-producing country for its role in the synthetic opioid trade — a blow to the reputation of China’s chemical industry.

  Simultaneously, the Biden administration pushed U.S. law enforcement agencies to conduct aggressive investigations and build indictments against dozens of Chinese citizens and companies that were trafficking fentanyl precursor chemicals into the United States.

  [..] Biden secured a personal commitment from President Xi Jinping to restart counternarcotics cooperation in November 2023

  [..] And we made progress. International fentanyl supply chains showed signs of disruption, forcing traffickers to change sources and tactics.

  Together with other diplomatic initiatives and an expansive public health campaign, the number of lethal fentanyl overdoses in the United States has dropped.

  In the 12 months ending September 2024, overdose deaths were down an estimated 24 percent from the year prior.

~ https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/18/opinion/trump-china-trade...

What has Trump done now he's back in office? Destroyed any cooperation with China on counternarcotics cooperation.

  Tariffs alone will not push China’s government to help reduce drug overdose deaths in the United States. In fact, with Beijing already imposing retaliatory tariffs and proclaiming that it’s “ready to fight till the end,” Mr. Trump’s blunt-force tactics might drive China to cooperate less on fentanyl, not more.

  With the stakes as high as they are, American communities cannot afford a miscalculation.

[wqaatwt]

> And China has shown that agreement with them has no value

Unfortunately they still have much more value than agreements with the US and Trump specifically. Which Canada and Mexico found out the hard way.

Of course the probability that Trump actually forgot that he was the one who no signed USMCA and none of his “advisors” dared to tell him is not insignificant..