[clodushid]

The primary architect of trumps tariff strategy in his first and second term is Peter Navarro. If you want to understand the tariffs today, just go read one of his many books. His goals are pretty simple:

reindustriaize America

No more free trade

China is evil and the worlds enemy

It should be no surprise to anyone observing trump since he took office that the end goal was always to decouple from China.

[adriand]

> The primary architect of trumps tariff strategy in his first and second term is Peter Navarro.

He's also a complete and utter liar. I happened to come across him speaking on Fox News when he stated that "Canada has been taken over by Mexican cartels". [1] As a Canadian and as someone who isn't living in some bizarre alternate reality, I can assure you that Canada has not been taken over by cartels. The claim is insane. The fact that his interviewer did not challenge him on this insanity is unsurprising yet also insane.

I bring this up first because it made me angry, but secondly because I think it's relevant to this discussion: of course things are going to turn out badly when the architects of policy are either liars, are living in an alternate reality, or both.

1: https://www.mediaite.com/tv/trump-adviser-insists-canada-has...

[grey-area]

Here another example of him lying:

It recently emerged a that he had been inventing quotes in all his books from a certain ‘Ron Vara’ a distinguished but entirely fictional economics professor.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/11/us/politics/navarro-ron-v...

[gman2093]

If this were a goal, the USA would not want to push other countries into China's sphere of influence. The simpler explanation is that non-tariff taxes require congress and are not fully under control of the executive branch. This allows the executive branch to seize the power of the purse.

[freeone3000]

Tariff taxes also require congress. It’s a constitutionally enumerated power of Congress specifically to levy import duties.

[bilbo0s]

Well, I mean, since we threw out the opposition in Congress?

I'm thinking we'd better not rely on Congress to put a stop to anything. A simple veto removes that problem. No way what's left of the opposition in Congress comes up with the votes to override a veto.

[samtp]

I believe the real architect of the strategy is Ron Vara [0]

[0] In case you didn't know Run Vara is a fake economist that Navarro made up in his books and memos to justify his own deeply flawed policies.

[emptyfile]

Tha fact that he just shuffled around the letters of his own name for the fake economist is simply amazing.

Brave new world.

[adamc]

It tells you a lot about him. Honesty is not a defining feature.

[CharlieDigital]

    > It should be no surprise to anyone observing trump since he took office that the end goal was always to decouple from China

Then why are we also slapping tariffs on Taiwan, Canada, Japan, Mexico, EU, RoW?

[9rx]

If we assume what is said is valid (a huge assumption, I know) and ignore the contradictions: They claim that China is able to pass into the US through Canada, Mexico, etc. and that the tariffs there are to put pressure on those governments to also put the squeeze on China in kind.

[CharlieDigital]

Then why did he just lift them on everyone except China?

[9rx]

He said because of the bond market reaction.

[grey-area]

Don’t forget Laos!

[goatlover]

And Lesotho, a country Trump had apparently never heard of.

[mjevans]

We're more likely to 'on shore' with 3D printer like automated fabricators (think next baby step between CnC machines and Replicators).

As far as any mention of jobs? Those are long gone and never coming back.

Trade still makes sense for raw inputs and any outputs though.

[inerte]

And since when the US has a “job availability” problem? Unemployment is low. We have a jobs quality problem. Good pay, good hours, benefits. It doesn’t matter if it’s manufacturing or services.

Somehow some people think their parents had it easier working for a factory, but a lot of blood and sweat went to get that. We can shed blood and sweat to get better barista jobs too. It’s not about where jobs are performed.

[h2zizzle]

Agreed. I'd go so far as to say that the compensation/job quality balance has been out-of-wack for years. It has never been about skill, either, but leverage. And even "unskilled" workers can conjure leverage by creating chokepoints that they can toll, if they're able to organize and hold out.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43604145

[fragmede]

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTjJgfspg/ shows it all too well.

Except that people liked those jobs because they were doable for people who aren't bright enough to write code. If you're not the brightest tool in the toolbox, and not the most professional, and have a criminal record, you still need a job, and the trades are open for business. Amazon warehouses skill level, without the dystopia.

I'm sure I'll do fine, it's my friends who have been underemployed for decades that aren't as bright who don't have a career to speak of that feel helpless and disempowered. Some of them voted for him. I can't say I don't see where they're coming from.

[watwut]

Again, America had low unemployment. And low level blue color job can be aw much dystopia as warehouse - your not bright person with criminal record an no skills will be taken advantage as much.

[fragmede]

What the unemployment numbers, even digging into U4 vs U6, don't account for, is how hard people have to scramble to find those jobs. it's not that they aren't out there, people do still need to pay bills after all, it's that gone are the days when you'd just show up to the union hall and know you'd just be assigned some work. That feeling of solidarity, that you can just rely on the fact that you're needed and necessary and can get a dollar to feed yourself today, whenever you need a dollar. That doesn't show up on unemployment numbers.

Arguably driving for Uber/whatever does that today, but you can't seriously believe that you can build an entire economy off of everyone delivering people and food to the rich.

[watwut]

I do not think there is space for solidarity where these changes are going. The people voting for president and supporting him see solidarity as a weakness and something for suckers - or worst as taking something away from them. Again and again, republicans are against any measure or action where someone might get something.

Even if factories are rebuild, there will be no solidarity. Nor work that gives you much meaning - factory work is repetitive no fun no spiritual anything work. With a lot of steps that seem pointless to the person doing them.

[sharemywin]

the things that made a factory job good are long gone too. pensions. stable employment. companies that cared about their employees.

[9rx]

Even if we assume manufacturing does bring back high quality jobs: The people still have to leave their low quality jobs they are currently doing to fill those jobs. Which means the American people are going to have to give up something. Which probably means things like their Big Macs, with a return to home cooking like in the heyday of manufacturing.

A win from a health perspective, perhaps, but going back to the age where people didn't do anything other than spend all their free time maintaining their home life probably isn't what people are dreaming of.

[dylan604]

Even Navarro (or is it that other guy who's name refuses to stick in my brain) that admits that the jobs they want to take out of China (screwing in many tiny screws) will not be jobs in the US but automated factories. So it's not a jobs program they are pushing. It's having manufacturing on local soil and less money going offshore. This is not something they mentioned during the campaign, but are saying it now. During the campaign it was all about those manufacturing jobs.

[9rx]

What really stood out to me is that they say the factories will produce their own power on-site, with approvals for power plants happening "faster than we've ever had before", because the grid is "at risk of bombings". Which suggests to me that it not just about having manufacturing local for the sake of it being local or to stop money going offshore, but because it is preparing for war.

[pseudalopex]

> What really stood out to me is that they say the factories will produce their own power on-site, with approvals for power plants happening "faster than we've ever had before", because the grid is "at risk of bombings".

Where can I read about this?

[9rx]

Right here.

[pseudalopex]

The article? It did not contain the quoted strings. Your comment? An anonymous HN comment is not a suitable source.

[dylan604]

Then they are playing the long con in expecting to not have to vacate at the end of the term as there is no way that enough manufacturing returns to be local with the ability make enough of anything in the time span of this single term

[9rx]

> expecting to not have to vacate at the end of the term

Perhaps that's exactly where the need is foreseen? Such a takeover would assuredly lead to a bout of violent conflict, that very well could lead to all out civil war if not managed well. You wouldn't need the kind of manufacturing required to take on the world, but you'd need a little bit to keep the people at bay. Americans with manufacturing facilities might not be so friendly after that kind of stunt, but if you can make new friends from abroad with facilities on US soil...

[nradov]

3D printing (additive manufacturing) isn't really a differentiating factor one way or the other. It's only economically viable for certain types of parts made in relatively low volume. And the USA doesn't have much of a comparative advantage.

There will never be anything like a "replicator". It's not physically possible.

[hooverd]

Yea, they're not talking about high value manufacturing. They practically want to burn that down; it's all about bringing low value textile production back.

[bryanlarsen]

I think you have cause and effect backwards. Trump pulled in Navarro because Navarro had the plan that Trump's been advocating for since the 80's. IOW, it's Trump's plan that Navarro is actualizing, not a plan that Navarro convinced Trump to make happen.

Trump's first term tariffs happened under Lighthizer, who was much more rational than both Trump & Navarro.

[goatlover]

> China is evil and the worlds enemy

And what is the US under the Trump administration? China didn't start a trade war, accuse every other country of ripping it off, hasn't talked of acquiring Greenland and making Canada it's 51st state, or discuss bombing cartels in Mexico.

[sharemywin]

let's not forget about arguing against due process, prison without trials, weird interpretations of ancient laws, mercurial application of the law. or the free speech threats. the AP, threaten licenses from news orgs, threaten law firms, sue news orgs.

[goatlover]

And today he's signed an executive order to investigate Miles Taylor and Chris Krebs because he doesn't like what they've said about him as president. This is authoritarian playbook stuff.

[anon84873628]

The parent comment is summarizing the viewpoints of one of the delusional people responsible for these policies, not endorsing them. The fact that it is all illogical and hypocritical is precisely the point.