[SideQuark]

The US manufactures more than ever, and the % of GDP in manufacturing has been flat for 70+ years now. The jobs didn’t leave, so they’re never coming back. They got automated. Just like we need vastly less farmers than in 1900 to farm more than ever, we need vastly manufacturing jobs to manufacture more than ever.

[chabska]

> The US manufactures more than ever

More of what, exactly? I looked at steel production data (in metric tonnes, not dollar value), US production has been flat or slightly declining since 1970.

[klooney]

https://www.econtalk.org/susan-houseman-on-manufacturing/#au...

People normally show a slowly increasing graph to claim that the US manufactures more than ever- but it's primarily because of hedonic adjustments for Intel chips. If you take that out it falls off a cliff in the 2000s during the China Shock.

[Spooky23]

Computer components, medical equipment, vehicles, aircraft, chemicals, etc.

Steel is something where value matters. US steel is usually higher grade or recycled with more value. Korea churns out tons and tons of low value low margin rebar.

You bring back manufacturing by investing in clustered industries. New York has a bunch of semiconductors. There’s a ton of chemical industries around Philly and Houston.

The iPhone is made in China because they have the best manufacturing for precision products. If you want that here, you have to invest.

[AnthonyMouse]

Automation increases production efficiency. Jevon's paradox says this will generally increase consumption, and in fact it has, so US consumption has gone up but production is flat. The difference comes from increasing imports from manufacturing in China. If the US manufactured the additional stuff instead of importing it, it would have more manufacturing jobs than it does now.

[aj7]

At what wages? Come on, man. Do you know what the average wage is in China on an iPhone assembly line? The pressures on workers?

[AnthonyMouse]

This is why the US needs automation. You don't want jobs assembling iPhones by hand, you want jobs building and maintaining factory automation equipment. But this is the trend globally anyway because a) it's becoming increasingly possible and b) the wages in countries like China have been increasing, so there is less "cheap labor" available in the alternative. But if you have an automated factory that requires trained workers making middle class money instead of a sweatshop, then why would the US want it in China instead of at home?

[SideQuark]

Decent paying manufacturing jobs are never returning; they’re automated out now.

It’s like wishing all of America would return to farming jobs, which once employed the majority of people. Then farming got automated such that now only a few percent of workers produce vastly more than those ancient hordes.

That’s where manufacturing went, and the rest of the world is as surely automating out those jobs too.