[fouc]

GPT-1 to GPT-2: June 2018 to February 2019 = 8 months.

GPT-2 to GPT-3: February 2019 to June 2020 = 16 months.

GPT-3 to GPT-4: June 2020 to March 2023 = 33 months.

Looks like time to get to the next level is doubling. So we can expect GPT-5 sometime June 2028.

Feels like people are being premature about claiming AI winter or that it is somehow a scandal that we don't already have GPT-5.

It's going to take time. We need some more patience in this industry.

[crmi]

This is overlooking the massive capital that's been invested in the part of the 33 months... Which alters the doubling timeline significantly.

[kartoffelmos]

Considering the capital burn rate here, I suspect that waiting years between iterations will be a hard pill to swallow for investors.