[motorest]

> That's pretty much irrelevant unless you opt out next reopening.

Not really. If your goal as an investor is to maximize your returns. Obviously, buying a security when it's value is cratering is the worst time to buy simply due to the fact that, in a scenario of an unavoidable bounce back, waiting out while doing nothing is more profitable. Buying earlier in the crash simply means the profitability of your hypothetical scenario is lowered.

> If you have your portfolio down 15%, 20% or 30% it does not matter. That's the short term picture.

I don't think you fully grasp the implications. Even assuming a simplistic interpretation of an unavoidable bounce back, if you postpone buying after the price craters 30% then you're guaranteeing your investment will be more profitable. Remember, the trick is to buy low and sell high, not buy high and hope it will somehow get higher.

[liendolucas]

Problem is that no-one knows when that's going to happen and it can bounce back as fast as it went down, meaning in that situation you would be missing the opportunity too. The investor strategy as per Bogle is simple: buy regularly, regardless the market and hold it forever (until you retire). I don't want to speculate, because that is known to be a losers game. I read some time ago "The Little Book of Common Sense Investing" and to me that seems to be good enough advice to stick with. It's simple and as for what I read from other sources it works.

> Remember, the trick is to buy low and sell high, not buy high and hope it will somehow get higher.

If you take a look at the historical S&P500 (1926-2016) trend even taking into account market crashes the curve always goes up in the long term. That's why Bogle's strategy works.