[ta1243]

The bigger debate I see is if it's worse for the US or worse for the rest of the world. The consensus is it's awful for everyone, apart from a few environmentalists that are looking forward to the reduce carbon emissions from a great depression.

I think the consensus is that if the rest of the world grows a spine it will emerge far stronger and the US a weaker state to before - akin to change the British Empire post ww2 compared with before, probably with the same glee they saw the British Empire falling.

[BLKNSLVR]

This is off topic, but I've actually found comfort in how it has galvanised Europe.

What worries me is which side the US (government, not people) would choose to support if EU states send troops to Ukraine's front lines, which would absolutely instigate a Russian response.

(Trump wouldn't like that the little EU states are messing with his negotiations for the shrinking and pillaging of Ukraine, and Trump is, if nothing else, vengeful).

[ta1243]

We'll see how quickly the rhetoric turns concrete.

Last time Europe tried to do something to reduce reliance on America in 2019, America threatened Europe with sanctions

https://www.dw.com/en/us-warns-eu-over-13-billion-defense-sp...

> The United States has decried "poison pills" embedded in proposed rules which could shut third country allies such as the United States out of European defense projects.

> US Ambassador to the EU Gordon Sondland emphasized the point in a letter and warned of possible US sanctions: "I hope we can avoid contemplating similar courses of action," he said. The EU has been asked to respond to the letter by June 10.

This is of course despite the fact most EU defence spending has always gone straight into the US economy.

> "The EU is actually at the moment much more open than the US procurement market is for the European Union companies and equipment," Mogherini said in Brussels. "In the EU there is no 'buy European' act and around 81% of international contracts go to the US firms in Europe today."

[jajko]

A defining pillar of a society is either a very strong common goal or enemy. US supplanted both, so yeah actually thank you for that.

My 2 cents - wanted to take family on a trip to western US, parks and maybe SF, not in fucking hell now or in next 2 decades. I know its just some tiny drop in the bucket, but that ~10k spent locally in those few weeks will be spent elsewhere and if enough people will do the same (which they will do), tourism will suffer a bit. Maybe US folks will go there more, who knows (US tourists are still very welcome in Europe, we just hate the people you vote in because they clearly hate us).

[CapricornNoble]

>What worries me is which side the US (government, not people) would choose to support if EU states send troops to Ukraine's front lines, which would absolutely instigate a Russian response.

Even the Biden administration was going out of its way to not push Russia too far. None of The Powers That Be in the US are interested in stumbling into WW3 with Russia, over Ukraine. Stumbling into WW3 with China, over Taiwan? Maybe. So I'd say Europe should approach such a decision from the assumption that you will receive no support from the US if you go down that road. If Europe wants to send its men to the killing fields of the Ostfront, it's on its own.

Assuming Europe, collectively, can even change the balance of power on the ground is also a stretch. Even some of the larger established militaries in Europe don't have the bodies to move the needle in this fight. The British Army, for example, has woefully understrength infantry battalions and is struggling with enlistment.[1][2] France claims they can put a division into the field [3] but I doubt that, probably more like a reinforced brigade (~5,000). I really don't get the impression European civil society is ready for hundreds or thousands of bodies to start coming back home either, but I could be wrong on that.

Meanwhile Russia inducted ~440,000 men last year, beating recruiting goals courtesy of MASSIVE cash enlistment bonuses, and still expects to grow their end strength this year as well.[4]

[1] https://x.com/Mrgunsngear/status/1908330593005322480

[2] https://www.euronews.com/2025/02/27/can-the-british-military...

[3] https://www.ausa.org/articles/french-army-transforms-close-c...

[4] https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-beating-military-recr...

[DeathArrow]

>Assuming Europe, collectively, can even change the balance of power on the ground is also a stretch.

They don't have a meaningful military but they have very big mouths. I don't think they are so stupid to enter a war they will surely lose.