[motorest]

> (...) the capital is going to pile back in if something like tariff deals start getting announced.

What leads you to believe that scenario is realistic?

I mean, the list of US trading partners is dominated by less than a dozen trading blocks: EU, Mexico, Canada, ASEAN, China. That's it. Trade with India is as significant as trade with Italy alone, and a massive deal with them would barely move the needle in this trade war.

Unless the US somehow makes it's own trade war go away with the likes of Canada and the EU, there is no bright outlook for the market and economy. Trump's administration is repeatedly threatening both with annexation.

To make matters worse, do you really believe any trading block will move back to preserve economic ties with the US after this mess? Not a chance in hell.

The EU, which thanks to the Trump administration is already scrambling to prepare for a war with Russia, is excluding the US from supplying them arms. This is the extent to which these trading blocks are going to shed ties with the US.

Do you think things will just go back to how things were 6 months ago? The Trump administration ensured this is impossible.

[kortilla]

> What leads you to believe that scenario is realistic

It literally just happened today.

[thebigjewbowski]

> the list of US trading partners is dominated by less than a dozen trading blocks: EU, Mexico, Canada, ASEAN, China. That's it.

ASEAN countries are eager to make a deal. The USMCA deal is still in tact with Mexico and Canada.

> The EU, which thanks to the Trump administration is already scrambling to prepare for a war with Russia, is excluding the US from supplying them arms. This is the extent to which these trading blocks are going to shed ties with the US.

Germany is in an energy crisis and a few other members are close to a sovereign debt crisis. Domestic production of weapons will be tough and expensive. The EU’s plan to sell bonds to pursue war with Russia looks horrid. They’re in no position to be in a trade war. In a few months time when this reality sinks in, they will have to make a trade deal and remove US tariffs.

[disgruntledphd2]

> Germany is in an energy crisis and a few other members are close to a sovereign debt crisis. Domestic production of weapons will be tough and expensive. The EU’s plan to sell bonds to pursue war with Russia looks horrid. They’re in no position to be in a trade war. In a few months time when this reality sinks in, they will have to make a trade deal and remove US tariffs.

This really, really depends on how things evolve this week. Like, the EU will 100% tarriff the US (and probably China to prevent dumping) this week.

The big question is whether or not they use the Anti-Coercion Instrument, and hit US tech and financial services. Selfishly, I hope they don't (as I work for a US fintech while I am based in the EU), but this will probably happen if Trump retaliates to this week's sanctions (which he probably will).

This is gonna get a lot worse before it gets better, unless there's a unilateral pullback on the part of the US (which seems very unlikely).

[thebigjewbowski]

> (and probably China to prevent dumping)

But why does the EU even want a manufacturing sector, don’t you all realize that no sane person wants those jobs? I kid, of course.

It’s truly a sad state of affairs and I hope that we all come to an understanding this week.

[motorest]

> But why does the EU even want a manufacturing sector, don’t you all realize that no sane person wants those jobs?

Why do you equate responding to Trump's tariffs with "want a manufacturing sector"? Trump is pushing the US to isolate itself from the world, not the EU. A few years ago the likes of Volkswagen were investing in auto factories in Morocco.