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by Aurornis 441 days ago
> The same thing happened just 4 short years ago when covid hit.

COVID was a natural disaster. Leadership responded to it.

This is the opposite. Markets were going well. Leadership intervened to crash them.

Do you see the difference? It’s not the same.

> You are overestimating the cautiousness of the market.

You are underestimating the impacts of risk premia.

This administration just showed that they don’t know what they’re doing, but they’re willing to go all-in on disastrous economic policy. They’ve already waffled on previous policy and then came back and doubled down. They’re still talking about more tariffs.

This isn’t a little “oopsie” any more. It’s a pattern. It’s going to be a long 4 years until we can get back to stability.

> Unless there are better returns offered in some other investment

You are so close. It’s not just returns, it’s risk. Trump just made the market hyper risky.

3 comments

Yeah, I think it’s worth emphasizing: we are in Month 4 and there’s already been an enormous amount of chaos.

We haven’t even seen the effects of the agencies getting cut. Sure they’re running for now, but burnout can set in quick for the remaining employees and some YC investor-clown’s delusional dream of an “AI” workforce isn’t going to save us.

I’m just one fish in the sea of retail investors but I won’t be in any rush to convert cash savings into investments with this current trajectory.

Besides, cash is infinitely more useful for my mortgage payments — especially if layoffs in the private sector start.

> we are in Month 4

I know this is shocking, but it hasn't even been 3 months yet. 2 months and 18 days.

The market returns today should make you re-evaluate your position on this. Anyone following your thesis would have sold out at the bottom.
>but they’re willing to go all-in on disastrous economic policy.

They did it to stem the covid bleeding too.

>It’s not just returns, it’s risk. Trump just made the market hyper risky.

What market do you think Trump didn’t make risky that this capital will flight to? All kinds of bond default risk shot up across the board as well.