[jfengel]

He seems quite confident that we "hold all of the cards", to quote another set of international trade negotiators.

I am less confident. The domestic consequences are immediate. Many of these negotiations are with experienced and patient experts. China, in particular, is under no obligation to its people or stock market to resolve this quickly.

The tariffs may not last, but I think they will end more unilaterally than Miran does. I guess we'll reach the Finding Out stage soon enough.

[graemep]

I think the longer the US waits the relatively weaker it becomes, so the sooner the better from that point of view.

I think many people in the US, and almost everyone in Europe, has not really woken up to the extent to which their economic clout has diminished over the last few years.

People go into denial about this, as it undermines their worldview, but if you look at west vs rest GDP the change over the last few decades is huge.