[Teever]

As I understand it SpaceX has launched 500 rockets and many of these rockets were reusable so the number of rockets that they've manufactured over the 25 years that they've been in business is far less than 500.

If you take a look at page 8 of this pdf[0] you'll see that the wargames predict that hundreds of missiles will be used in the first few weeks of an engagement between China and the US over Taiwan. Page 10 will curdle your blood as you'll see that they anticipate to lose dozens of ships including two(!) aircraft carriers. Page 11 shows hundreds of losses of various aircraft.

SpaceX will not save those lives and they will not be able to replace the equipment in time for a second engagement with China.

Take a look at a previous comment that I wrote about this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42391816

[0] https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites...

[weard_beard]

I read your comment and the pdf and I guess my question is answered. “No, we did not consider asymmetric and possibly massively impactful scenarios like control of low earth orbit munitions deployed on a massive scale.”

[Teever]

I interpreted your question as asking if the US could use SpaceX's rocket manufacturing capacity to produce ICBMs that could be used to hit Chinese ships.

Now that I see that this was not what you're suggesting I don't think that two years is a sufficient time frame to build, test, and deploy the kinds of weapons that you're suggesting.

It seems like America is sleep walking into a horrible conflict with China and this combined with all of the soft power that America is losing in the past few months doesn't bode well for the outcome of this conflict.

[weard_beard]

That’s where I’d start looking for advantage.

[hedora]

It’s not particularly asymmetric. China has ICBMS and is upwind from the US. It’s hard to imagine non-civilization-ending conflicts where dropping space rocks on China comes into play.

[weard_beard]

Imagine harder.

[Teever]

Can you describe in greater detail what you're imagining?

[aisenik]

It's mostly just "Golden Dome," Trump's plan to give Musk a global constellation of (potentially nuclear-armed) "anti-ballistic missile" weaponized satellites. I'm sure there's other facets of orbital warfare fantasies involved (X-37B's capabilities for instance) but Golden Dome is Musk's attempt to "disrupt" global defense by implementing the SDI plans of the 80s and 90s (aka SpaceX).

Admittedly, it's a dangerous plan for all of humanity. I've considered it Musk's win-condition for this whole insane, destructive wager he's made with his reputation, businesses, and wealth on the table.

I think it's why the neonazi regime aren't afraid of plunging the world into economic catastrophe and setting the conditions for WW3. They believe their plan can't fail. Regrettably, it seems like we'll get to find out.

[Teever]

There's almost no chance that this gets built, tested, and deployed in the time frame required to avert the deaths of tens of thousands of people in the US military.

[weard_beard]

Basically this.

[weard_beard]

Not for free and not in the span of a post, no. I’d love to do it over 6 months for 5 million dollars with a team of 6

[Teever]

"I have discovered a truly marvelous proof of this, which this margin is too narrow to contain."