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by afinlayson 433 days ago
It’s cheaper to travel to Canada or Mexico than to buy it at that price.
3 comments

Most people aren't buying a 1TB iPhone Pro Max - which is the model described by analysts.

Realistically, Apple will eat much of the cost, but increase prices by 10-15%. Most other retailers are thinking the same.

This was noted in the Reuters article [0] this macrumors article stole content from:

> the company will have a tough time passing on more than 5% to 10% of the cost to consumers.

> "We expect Apple to hold off on any major increases on phones until this fall when its iPhone 17 is set to launch, as it is typically how it handles planned price hikes."

[0] - https://www.reuters.com/technology/will-trump-tariffs-make-a...

> Realistically, Apple will eat much of the cost

No

Did you read the original Reuters report this macrumors article stole content from?

Price Elasticity is very much a thing.

Which would reduce the profit margin and then PE ratio and then market capitalisation.

Who would want that?

The alternative is severely reduced purchases, which are an even more severe hit to all the metrics mentioned.

Margins are important, but so is rate of sales. Hence the statements in the original Reuters article.

> alternative is severely reduced purchases

Doubt it. Keep a cheap upgrade option with an older and reduced BOM and then use the tariffs as an excuse to boost the top-of-the-line offering to $3k.

That's why Buffet sold his Apple stock: he saw this coming. Now he can buy it at a discount.
Apple consumers aren't price sensitive. If they were, they wouldn't buy Apple.
If the US increases customs checks, and if the person is caught, that risks seizure of the phone and a fine starting at $300.
You think customs will check if you're using the same phone that you left with? What, will there be a national registry?
Someone carrying a new phone in the original box would need to prove they purchased it in the USA. Discard the box in Canada and it's a lot less suspicious.

Customs are unlikely to find the phone unless they have some other reason to search, or unless it's in checked baggage and there are several.

Some countries do routinely scan all incoming hand luggage, but it's so long since I visited the USA I don't remember if they do.

In some countries visitors declare what they're bringing, so they don't pay tax on that so long as they take it with them when they leave.

“If” is doing a lot of work there. Do you think they’ll slow down airports and port of entries to check everyone’s personal phone? Maybe if you buy 3+ to sell. But there’s congressmen who fly with guns on their carryon. Let’s tackle serious threats first.
> Let’s tackle serious threats first.

What’s your actual point or argument here?

You seem to start off arguing that it won’t happen, and you finish by arguing that you don’t think that it should happen, i.e. if you had things your way, it’d be different.

Which is it? They aren’t the same thing.

I mean, if the Trump tariffs hold up, I assume the US will have to get a lot stricter on customs; you’d absolutely expect smuggling on a massive scale otherwise.
There are already Trump NFT tokens, those could serve as tariff stamps whenever a phone crosses jurisdictions or during spot checks.