[Paradigma11]

I disagree on Russia. If that tariff madness goes on for more than a few months Russia is dead. Russia's economy is already completely unsustainable and on the brink. Brent is currently traded at 66USD and if oil prices fall a bit more and stay there that's it for Russia.

It will be fascinating to see what is going to happen with that purely mercenary army recruited from the poor when the money is worth nothing any more.

[ttyprintk]

I’ve been thinking about your second point. Some speculation:

Assuming that Trump, Musk, and Putin each need something from one of each other. Assuming that the siloviki want to quietly rule Russia.

A mercenary uprising would be convenient cover for Putin to endure exile in, say, the Caribbean. Security by FSB, siloviki split up their rule across Russia, etc. Operating from Guyana, Putin could deprive ESA of access to the French Guiana spaceport, handing it over to Musk.

The entire Caribbean fell into 10% tariffs except for two: Guyana (38%) and Cuba (0%).