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by csomar 433 days ago
The betting site did predict Trump will win the election.
2 comments

The crypto betting site users had high sentiment trump would win
If the betting site is used as a hedge, then the equilibrium prices don’t reflect real-world probabilities.

Suppose people predicted that Trump would tank the economy and wanted a few extra dollars in that case. An extra dollar in a Trump world would be worth more than in a normal world, thus distorting betting.