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by dronacharya 446 days ago
About (3): This will inoculate the economy against external supply chain shocks, e.g. war.

The lead time required to set up realistic domestic production will mostly exceed this government's term. Setting up brand new supply chains doesn't happen overnight, does it?
1 comments
claiir 446 days ago
Correct; it doesn't. However,

(1) Tariffs will not affect all commodities in the same class equally, creating a natural price advantage, even at the level of consumers. While not absolute autarky, demand will continue to shift to less externally-dependent goods, which has and will continue to reduce our liability.

(2) Ideally congress would codify the tariffs to prevent that. That said, it seems the first Trump term tariffs did induce production onshoring, despite that uncertainty.

What would it take to change your mind on these tariffs?

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HarHarVeryFunny 446 days ago
> What would it take to change your mind on these tariffs?

If there was a positive outcome? US citizens financially better off in 4 years than they are today?

I don't think most MAGA voters would see it as a win if US was slightly less dependent on imports, but they personally are considerably worse off financially, which seems the likely outcome.

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p2detar 446 days ago
> demand will continue to shift to less externally-dependent goods, which has and will continue to reduce our liability.

The cure for this type of wishful thinking is nothing else but reality itself. Still, it’s not the premise that’s wrong here, but the argument that the US society is capable to make this type of shift. It just isn’t gonna happen.

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