[tosser0001]

Unlike previous market turmoil (2008, 2020) where the U.S. at least had established global trade order to lean on for the recovery, this feels like the U.S. could be entering a period of sustained damage. I don't see how the U.S. recovers from this in anything like he near term. Americans will have to get used to a long stretch of low economic growth.

The global trade order is going to be reconfigured, but not in the way the Trump thinks. The U.S. is throwing up a wall around itself, but the rest world will continue with the current regime and likely move away from the U.S. permanently.

What's sad is, the Congress could simply revoke the ability for Trump to single-handedly make these tariffs, but they appear too cowed to do anything about it.

[mtmail]

The senate voted to null trumps Canada tariffs, but it's not expected to pass the house. The president can also veto the decision and it would go back and require a 2/3 majority. Not impossible just unlikely.

[bryanlarsen]

The hopeful path is to knock down the made up national emergency via the courts.

Right now there are suits in the courts to declare that fentanyl crossing from Canada is not a national emergency. That's a tough case because there is no definition for national emergency, so the court will likely defer to the president's definition. However if Congress says it isn't a national emergency then the courts have the option to defer to Congress's decision rather than the president's. And once the national emergency declaration is gone, Trump needs Congress's support to pass tariffs.

[epistasis]

In my opinion it's clear that Trump does not care about global trade and is only trying to consolidate power by destroying the economy and the middle class. Canada is closer to realizing what's going on, but not quite yet, and France is really far away from realizing what's going on, but they will faster than the rest of Europe.

Canada's likely new Prime Minister Carney: "Canada must be looking elsewhere to expand our trade, to build our economy, and to protect our sovereignty. Canada is ready to take a leadership role in building a coalition of likeminded countries who share our values… If the US no longer wants to lead, Canada will"

France's Macron: "It was important for us to meet as quickly as possible after last night's announcement from President Trump, which are a shock to international trade, not just for the EU and France, but fundamentally for the proper functioning of global commerce. What's important is that we pause future investments, or these announced in recent weeks, until we've clarified things with the United States. What would be the message of having big European players investing billions of euros in the American economy at a time when they are hitting us? So we need collective solidarity." https://bsky.app/profile/rpsagainsttrump.bsky.social/post/3l...