[SecretDreams]

Energy independence and a mix of technologies isn't just about cost. It's about redundancy and how you're positioning yourself to handle various unexpected events.

You don't want a state primarily on solar if you get a super cell darkening the sky for a week.

You want a mix of renewables, but you don't strictly want to rely on the food graces of mother nature at all times.

Boiling things down to just price is a very simplistic view.

[Certhas]

You seem to think this contradicts my statement somehow?

Obviously you want a tech mix, and obviously anyone working in the field is taking the dunkelflaute or other extreme events very seriously. That's where storage comes in, and that's where the biggest unknowns and needs for future development are (e.g. is seasonal H2 storage really feasible). But to pretend like nuclear can magically become cheaper through technical breakthroughs, while storage is an unsolvable problem is disingenuous.

It's also disingenuous to suggest that random fluctuations in weather are somehow a unique problem. Sudden unscheduled maintenance can take down nuclear plants as well. As can the weather: Nuclear power plants require cooling and can be shut down due to weather and climatic conditions, too [1].

[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-021-00849-y

> I analyse climate-linked outages in nuclear power plants over the past three decades. My assessment shows that the average frequency of climate-induced disruptions has dramatically increased from 0.2 outage per reactor-year in the 1990s to 1.5 in the past decade. Based on the projections for adopted climate scenarios, the average annual energy loss of the global nuclear fleet is estimated to range between 0.8% and 1.4% in the mid-term (2046–2065) and 1.4% and 2.4% in the long term (2081–2100).

[SecretDreams]

> But to pretend like nuclear can magically become cheaper through technical breakthroughs, while storage is an unsolvable problem is disingenuous.

I didn't say storage was not solvable and I even gave a better storage solution than your silly "batteries" example.

> Based on the projections for adopted climate scenarios, the average annual energy loss of the global nuclear fleet is estimated to range between 0.8% and 1.4% in the mid-term (2046–2065) and 1.4% and 2.4% in the long term (2081–2100).

From your own linked article - do you think this energy loss is even close to comparable to solar for similar conditions? You've linked an article but don't seem to understand the point they're looking to make.

Anywho, I don't think you're looking to argue in good faith and seem to have an anti-nuclear agenda, despite talking about an "energy mix". Save your policies for whatever echo chamber they were derived from, thanks.

[Certhas]

What silly batteries example?

If seasonal storage is solvable, solar + wind is not unreliable.

And no, I don't have an anti nuclear agenda. But I know the energy system models and the results, and just how difficult integrating nuclear into the mix is.

https://nworbmot.org/blog/burden-of-proof.html

Finally, I know exactly what the paper says but maybe you don't: the problem with Dunkelflaute events is correlation. If it's cloudy somewhere and the sun is shining elsewhere, then no problem. These problematic conditions for nuclear are the same: large scale spatial correlated.

[SecretDreams]

> Finally, I know exactly what the paper says but maybe you don't: the problem with Dunkelflaute events is correlation. If it's cloudy somewhere and the sun is shining elsewhere, then no problem. These problematic conditions for nuclear are the same: large scale spatial correlated.

Great. We'll just pipe over the energy from Arizona to Michigan, should be fine.

Large scale weather events drop nuclear by 1% long term. What percentage do they do for solar?

I'm not even a solar hater - I love solar... On residential and commercial rooftops. Or in sunny and void of life areas.

I love a mix. And nuclear integrates just fine into the mix. Look at a province like Ontario where 60% of the energy is derived from hydro and nuclear. An incredible and robust baseline power with low downtime and, correspondingly, cheap power for all of the residents of that province.

Even more energy from solar and wind too, with some natty gas as top off. Seems to work just fine for them - and with long winters and plenty of cloudy days, solar as a big component of their energy mix seems pretty silly to push for. You can see the mix live below.

https://live.gridwatch.ca/home-page.html

It was 53% nuclear and 28% hydro at the time of me posting this. 16% natty, 4% wind, and 0.1% solar. The solar was good for 21 MW and the nuclear was good for 9600 MW for perspective. Their nuclear has been safe as hell and has run flawlessly for I think 30+ years.