| Expecting anyone to model and quantify in a hacker news comment is borderline unrealistic. But hot-takes are another matter: 4 is basically #1: Every "non-traditional" investment can be made into an ETF (and for that matter, mutual funds) provided it aligns with SEC and/or exchange rules. Still, PE funds probably won't get a lot of takers by individual company's fund admins even if they're allowed. They're quite conservative, and rightly so. 2 & 3 would both cause the equivalent of modern bank runs. American financial institutions would be in tatters. And as an individual why not? I can withdraw from a 401k, with just a 10% penalty plus income tax. Rationally, this is still better; especially if the highest tax brackets are favorably cut-down thanks to our conservative madmen. Which means the safest course of action is to withdraw it in chunks; then place it into safer investment vehicles and nations. Of course, what would really happen is something more catastrophic as this withdrawal dovetails from thousands to millions. Finally, with so many nations and wealthy also invested into the US, this then turn into more than just a US problem as it becomes hard/impossible to offload US financial assets. |