[grey-area]

We don’t know, but we can guess that it is lower than that, and have no reason to think it is that rare.

The elements of life have been found to arise spontaneously, see Bartel and Szostak for example.

[pfdietz]

The elements of life (by this I presume you mean various small biomolecules like amino acids) arising easily doesn't imply life arises easily.