[llm_nerd]

Unassailable?

Musk is a lightning rod. Surely he must realize that after he has served his purpose, he will be cast aside and likely end up imprisoned if not worse, right?

Have people paid no attention to what happens to almost everyone in Trump's orbit? In Musk's case it will be hugely politically valuable to use him as a sponge for anger, pretend that he was free-ranging, and cast him aside. Therefore Oceania had always been at war with Eurasia. We've seen this pattern with Trump time and time again, and it's amazing that Musk seems so completely delusional about this guaranteed outcome.

[root_axis]

I think the idea that Trump and Musk have a falling out is wishful thinking - they have too many aligned long-term incentives. Also, Trump consistently rewards public loyalty, especially the extremely sycophantic kind that Elon exudes. "Unassailable" is a dramatic way to phrase it, but its more or less accurate.

[llm_nerd]

I'm not being wishful. It is an absolute certainty. Like as certain as the heat death of the universe. We're only two months in and already the friction is growing.

Both have absolutely colossal egos. Both demand being the centre of attention at all times, and both have a weird Mafioso "family dynasty" thing going on. I mean, look at Musk dropping in on various Trump meetings. I don't think you could say he was being sycophantic at all, but quite contrary is giving off major "these are my employees" energy.

Add that Musk is increasingly whiny. He's starting to realize that the people aren't going to love him for the things he is doing, and he's realizing this isn't the long term advantage he thinks.

At some point, sooner rather than later, they're going to disagree on something. It might not even be a big thing. Or maybe Trump will just decide it's political capital to jettison Musk during some crisis or other. The egos will clash, Musk will be declared a "RINO" (like almost 100% of Trump's first cabinet and underlings) and every protection will evaporate.

Musk's "favorability rating" is collapsing (currently -19 and dropping). He is a sponge taking all of the negativity, and once he has absorbed enough he's going to get jettisoned.

[root_axis]

> Both have absolutely colossal egos.

This matters less than you think. Trump has no problem setting aside his ego to further his agenda. Remember his leaked calls with the Mexican president? Remember his submission to Putin in Helsinki? His entire cabinet is made up of people who have trashed him, his own VP called him literally the next Hitler. Trump acts very rationally when it comes to power dynamics, casting off Elon only creates problems for him, no benefits.

> but quite contrary is giving off major "these are my employees" energy.

That's just the vibes you're picking up, Trump doesn't care about this, he's the one sitting at the desk. What he cares about is the unending stream of praise that Elon glazes him with. "Trump was right about everything", "Trump is the greatest president ever", walking around in Trump swag etc etc. Allowing Musk to crash a couple meetings with the press means nothing.

> and he's realizing this isn't the long term advantage he thinks

Elon is all-in, he's burned every other bridge, a Trump alliance is the only long-term advantage he has.

> Musk's "favorability rating" is collapsing (currently -19 and dropping).

Except with Trump's base, where it has climbed from -10 to +50. There is close to 0 possibility of Elon being jettisoned.

[ceejayoz]

> His entire cabinet is made up of people who have trashed him, his own VP called him literally the next Hitler.

You don’t think it helps his ego to bring these folks to heel? To make Marco Rubio preside over the destruction of a foreign policy system he personally values?

> Except with Trump's base, where it has climbed from -10 to +50.

The same folks suddenly hate Canada. They swing, wildly. The core principle is “what is Trump saying today” - what he said yesterday is unimportant.

If Trump turns on Musk, so will they.

[llm_nerd]

>Trump has no problem setting aside his ego to further his agenda.

Everything Trump does -- on geopolitics, trade, business, law -- is 100% based upon his ego. Trump's bizarre hostility towards Canada and Europe is not based upon reality, it's based upon how Trump feels they have treated him (look at Trump's endless attacks on Canada...while the US has a $100B trade deficit with Vietnam of all places). Zelensky has thanked Americans and America endlessly, but to Trump and his puppy Vance, it's about thanking them personally.

Trump's ego is the root of literally everything the US does now. The world power being led based upon this clown's mafiosa type behaviour, which apparently the majority of America is happy to go along with. The guy sharpies maps and lies with every utterance if it serves his ego (in a manner that breaks the average person's brain, unable to comprehend that someone could be so insanely deceptive always, so they assume he surely can't be and it must be everyone and reality that is wrong). He holds laughable fake golf championships, that he of course wins on every outing. He posts fake man of the year magazine covers. It would be laughable if it wasn't so profoundly tragic.

All of the members of Trump's team have to subjugate themselves and metaphorically lick his toes at every meeting, in a scene that would make North Korea look on with shame.

EDIT: The US government just published the DNS for trumpcard.gov, likely for their "sell citizenship for $5M" hilarious plan. For anyone to seriously downplay this sociopath's extraordinary ego and need to be pandered to constantly is amazing.

>"Trump was right about everything"

Surely you realize that Musk's actual message was that he, Musk, was right about everything, right? Musk is happily going with this Trump is my puppet thing, and nonsense like this is Musk making it his own and about himself. Similar to how he often wears a black MAGA hat, because he's trying to make the cult his own. He won't succeed.

>Except with Trump's base, where it has climbed from -10 to +50. There is close to 0 possibility of Elon being jettisoned.

Sure, in the same way that Republicans suddenly hate Zelensky. The cult will follow whatever the cult leader demands.

With every passing month those big DOGE savings aren't going to materialize -- oh the excitement they all had for those imaginary $5000 DOGE savings checks they would get -- government will continue to fall apart, trade wars will put millions out of work and stagflation is going to go nuts, Americans will realize they are a global pariah (hey, but they've got El Salvador and Russia, so there's that), and things will turn really quickly. Musk will be an easy bit of chum to toss in the water. Trump loses nothing.

We'll revisit this. Musk absolutely will not last the term, and I doubt he'll make it to midterms. And when he is jettisoned, he should realize the outrageous, perilous danger he will be in.

[davidham]

Musk is different from the other people in Trump’s orbit. Trump can’t afford to throw Musk aside or turn him into an enemy. Not yet anyway.

This is not to say that there won’t be a breakup, there may yet be. But it seems like Musk was able to parlay his Twitter investment into tremendous direct influence over the government, a pearl without price. I don’t know that he ever cared whether Twitter made money or not.

[llm_nerd]

Trump and the MAGA cult is far bigger than Musk. Musk was against Trump, and actually backed DeSantis. Did not matter at all.

If Trump turned his cult against Musk, Musk would be done. Immediately all of the bootlickers and retweeters would deride everything Musk has said or done. Musk's money would be meaningless, and he'd be the next "Soros" in their minds.

Musk clearly cares incredibly about whether Twitter makes money, and has been desperately flailing around to try to make it viable. They're currently suing advertisers who don't advertise there, which is farcical. Musk really believed his grand "we'll be your bank!" thing would be some simple thing (because everything is super easy to do for someone who doesn't actually understand or do any of it)

[acdha]

I’ve been wondering about that because it seems like the relationship is increasingly unbalanced in Trump’s favor.

Musk is very exposed to Trump now: he needs pardons or abeyance of enforcement for DOGE, all of his companies are exposed to multiple regulators, and he depends on government contracts. A lot of the money he throws around in politics is leveraged on his stock holdings, so a regulatory move which affects that would also cut into his ability to fight back.

In contrast, while Trump was somewhat addicted to X he doesn’t need it after the election the way he did before and he’s shifted a lot to Truth Social. Before the election, he depended on Musk’s money but he’s been taking in a huge war chest which he can use to keep Republicans in line, too.