[ZeroTalent]

This. The same thing is happening with Tesla stock. Since it's such a bit part of the S&P500, so half of retail investors buy it in their basket of portfolios and 401ks at trades at 10x it's worth on paper by looking at fundamentals.

[lotsofpulp]

That reasoning would lead to concluding all the businesses in SP500 are traded at 10x their worth on paper. Or at least all the ones with market caps greater than Tesla.

Edit, since I hit posting limit.

To pooper:

> Since it's such a big part of the S&P500

The conclusion is based on that premise, so any other business that satisfies that premise should also lead to the same conclusion.

To llm:

> I think their point is that businesses at the top of the S&P500 are traded at sentiment and momentum based values that are pretty disconnected from a logical P/E

I have read the same about other businesses many times. There is nothing logical about only using P/E as a factor in determining price (or “worth”). No one knows the future, so even a price derived from an arbitrary standard of P/E is a “sentiment and momentum based” value.

[lmm]

I think their point is that businesses at the top of the S&P500 are traded at sentiment and momentum based values that are pretty disconnected from a logical P/E, which is valid enough. The multiple happens to be 10x in Tesla's case, it's not 10x for all of them (in the case of Saudi Aramco it's probably less than 1x), but it's much less of an informed valuation than the sheer volume of trading would make you think.

[maest]

Index adda pop and deletes drop in price.

So index membership does change the stock multiple (but not by 10x).

Also, Tesla is an idiosyncratic stock with very high volatility and very high retail participation. Things can be true of Tedla stock which do not have to be true of the median stock.

[pooper]

Can you please elaborate on this? I am unable to follow the logic here.

[ZeroTalent]

I'm claiming this based on fundamental analysis of Tesla's sales/net profits/ROIIC and other metrics, which I take from their 13F fillings (AKA quarterly earning reports) compared to other car manufacturers.

Some stocks are overpriced, and others are undervalued. The inclusion in the S&P500 alone is just 1 of the factors.

In my opinion, Apple and NVIDIA are significantly undervalued based on their fundamentals, even though they make up a gigantic % of the SPX.

[lotsofpulp]

I understand, and I’m claiming there is no one logical or fundamental way to derive a price.

It could be logical to ascribe some value to a business’s leader having access to a US president known to be “open for business”? And we know a big tax bill is likely to be passed by year’s end.

Perhaps that will lead to good fortunes for Tesla shareholders. Or maybe not.

[ZeroTalent]

You can derive the "true price" with a certain probability. Of course, unexpected things can happen, like Musk being assassinated, but the stock market is not completely unpredictable.

And the thing is, I don't have to be right about Tesla because I'm not making a single bet on that company. I'm making hundreds of bets using my methodology, and it's enough that I'm right 50-something% of the time (or even less than 50%, if we're talking Options trading).

That's what the whole stock market game is about. Hence, some investment companies, like Berkshire Hathaway, consistently make more than others over the long term.

[danso]

haven’t had my coffee yet but I assume you meant “big” rather than “bit”

[ZeroTalent]

yup, i haven't had my coffee yet when I was writing it either :)

[jaggs]

LOL, serious question. Is coffee to writing really a thing? It sounds a bit weird to me, but maybe it's shorthand? :)

[ZeroTalent]

It's that we open Hacker News right after we wake up and post comments before our brains are in full power, hence the mistakes. Coffee is not a necessity, but most people drink it. I believe it's not exactly about caffeine but letting the brain 30 minutes or so to "wake up" to stop making mistakes. At least, that's how it works in my case.

[jaggs]

Aha, thanks very much for the detailed explanation. Absolutely makes sense.