[anonymars]

When it was raining yesterday, and people with weather experience say "it might rain tomorrow", do you insist umbrellas should be left at home because it's just speculation?

Except in this scenario it's still raining as we speak. What data do you have that Russia will stop?

[ossobuco]

There are many experts saying that tomorrow won't rain, unless we make it rain ourselves. Don't make it sound like there's a clear consensus.

> What data do you have that Russia will stop?

I’m not the one suggesting we throw away €800 billion, excuse me for asking why. Still, I'll try to explain.

Russia has lots to lose and nothing to gain from a direct war with NATO. The last thing it needs is more land and resources, so we can exclude that as well. I also genuinely think the cause of this war is Russia feeling threatened by NATO expansion and a civil war on its border, whether you consider that legit or not.

The only reason for Russia to not stop is if we don't allow it, at this point.

[anonymars]

This sounds exactly like what people were saying right up to February 2022: it doesn't make sense, Russia won't invade Ukraine, Russia has enough land, it is geopolitical suicide. And yet, here we are!

And does it really seem like the USA is going to come to the rescue if Russia pushes into the Baltics? Heck at this point they may very well use the distraction to invade Greenland.

So what's the deterrent but for Europe to buy its own umbrella?

[ossobuco]

> So what's the deterrent but for Europe to buy its own umbrella?

We already have an umbrella and it costs 3 times as much as Russia's umbrella, while being much less effective. So before burning another €800 billions Iwish we'd put some effort in finding ways to make our current $450 billions of yearly expense work.

Seriously, if we need 10x Russia's budget to keep up with them we've already lost.

On the other hand, if the ultimate goal isn't to make Europe safer, but just to enrich a bunch of weapon manufacturers, then I'd say this plan works perfectly.