[fabian2k]

Based on previous actions by Russia, like the 2014 Invasion in Ukraine. But mostly I took this scenario from what one expert wrote (Carlo Masala), but it is just that, one scenario.

But this is similar to what other expert say, that the more concerning weak point in NATO is political. And if Russia could successfully drive a wedge between the NATO states it becomes vulnerable even if the total conventional military of its members is superior to Russian forces.

[ossobuco]

There's plenty of other experts saying that peaceful cooperation with Russia is possible. Wouldn't that be preferable to war to the last man, or a new decades long cold war?

I don't understand why don't we talk more about achieving that, instead of blindly preparing for WWIII. NATO shouldn't even exist since the URSS collapsed.

[arrrg]

Sure. Might be. But you are here asking for Europe to preemptively roll over and give in to Russian wars of aggression.

From a game theory point of view how is that supposed to bring peace? That just shows Russia that they can do whatever they want and reach their goals. We already had the Minsk agreement Russia violated. Why should Russia stop when we give in to their demands? What‘s the logic there?

At some point you have to show strength. And earlier is probably better if you want to prevent WWIII

[ossobuco]

> At some point you have to show strength. And earlier is probably better if you want to prevent WWIII

Sure, EU combined already spends three times as much as Russia in "showing strength". I'm sure there must be a way to use what we have without tripling the expense. If nothing, because showing that we need 10 times their military expense to keep up with them would only show that we are in fact weaker.

Unless the goal of rearmament is only to make a few weapon manufacturers richer, then I'd say we've found the most efficient way to do it.

[arrrg]

I don’t think re-armament is the only or the best solution. It’s just that with the US having left the picture Europe does have to show strength if it has to have any hope of keeping Russia at bay. That‘s not just arms, that’s also credible deterrence. How can Europe achieve that absent the US without spending on arms?

I do think that Ukraine is instructive in terms of Russia not being as almighty as they might seem, but in terms of outcome Putin is scary close to achieving practically all of his war aims short of Ukraine ceasing to exist. I learned that Putin is patient. He can take it step by step. He does not value human life. And that’s dangerous.

At great cost to the Russian people, sure, but does Putin care? Another five to ten years and he can give something else a go. And suddenly he is in the Baltcis or at the Polish border.

[rat87]

Sure that would be preferable if Russia was willing to accept that. But they proved those experts wrong in 2022 and have not changed their ways since. Maybe you could argue in the 90s that NATO shouldn't exist but Russias actions proved such arguments wrong

[navane]

After how many slaps in your face will you raise your hands? Europe tried peace with Russia and Russia invaded country after country over the past decades. Where would you draw the line?

[ossobuco]

As far as I know, invading other countries and bombing civilians is an informal requirement for friendship with the EU.

We've been friends for decades with the US, Israel, Turkey, and more, after all.

I understand Russia is a bit low in terms of amount of civilians killed, but we could make an exception for them if it avoided WWIII.

[navane]

Line where?

[ossobuco]

Exactly where we drew it with the USA and Israel I'd say.

[tim333]

There's a saying if you want peace prepare for war. Especially with Russia who seem to have a habit of cooperation with countries that can defend themselves and invasion of those who can't.

[ossobuco]

> There's a saying if you want peace prepare for war.

Sure, EU combined already spends three times as much as Russia in "showing strength". I'm sure there must be a way to use what we have without tripling the expense. If nothing, because if we need 10 times their military expense to keep up with them we'd only show that we are in fact weaker.