[estsauver]

This idea is extremely old, but also has a very bad record of being wrong for hundreds of years:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An_Essay_on_the_Principle_of_P...

It’s worth knowing if you’re proposing an idea that’s been continuously proposed, and has been continuously proven wrong by time and history, that you might want to consider if there are other drivers that continually oppose your thesis. I think technology is sufficiently powerful we’ll be able to power our needs for another hundred years at a minimum if we try.

[aziaziazi]

The wiki article you link cites some "critics" but I don’t see proofs. How would you "prove" the future of humanity anyway? Moreover that idea has taken different forms between time and individual formulating it, we can’t reject all of them because some includes fallacies.

> Despite use of the term "Malthusian catastrophe" by detractors such as economist Julian Simon (1932–1998), Malthus himself did not write that mankind faced an inevitable future catastrophe. Rather, he offered an evolutionary social theory […]

1. subsistence severely limits population-level

2. when the means of subsistence increases, population increases

3. population-pressures stimulate increases in productivity

4. increases in productivity stimulate further population-growth

5. because productivity increases cannot maintain the potential rate of population growth, population requires strong checks to keep parity with the carrying-capacity

6. individual cost/benefit decisions regarding sex, work, and children determine the expansion or contraction of population and production

7. checks will come into operation as population exceeds subsistence-level

8. the nature of these checks will have significant effect on the larger sociocultural system—Malthus points specifically to misery, vice, and poverty

[frabcus]

I didn't know before reading the Wikipedia article you linked that Malthus's essay led directly to the creation of the UK census. Which is one of the mechanisms by which we cope with population growth!

Perhaps both things can be truth - the criticism is right with no intervention, AND the interventions it hopefully causes make everything alright.

[padjo]

History is also littered with people confidently stating that since something has not happened it therefore can never happen. Often immediately before the thing then happens.

[moron4hire]

Why would history bother to record the people who claimed an event could never happen and were right?

[atoav]

I mean humanity is a little bit more complex than bacteria growth, for example because humans can to some degree influence if, when and how many kids they are getting.

But the logistic growth function is used to model populations in animals as well. So the question is what is your counteragrument?

1. reality is more complex than the logistic function, but ultimately in fact we would reach some sort of saturation effect, e.g. by humanity moderating the birth rates.

2. reality is more complex, but infinite growth in an finite habitat is somehow possible (note, that infinity is a huge number)

If it is the latter I'd be very curious to see your mathematical model and your reasoning behind it.

On the topic of model complexity: the logistic growth function is a simplification and in reality one would have to incorporate at all kind of resources (and their geographical locations, renewing rates, etc) in a complex mega model. But I do not see how any model could sustain infinite humans. And if it can't it means there is saturation and that means the logistic growth function is a good mental approximation for populations.

Also see: https://bio.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Introductory_and_Gene...

[immibis]

Or we just didn't estimate the maximum population correctly, or managed to keep pushing it up for a century with improved agricultural technology.

It's hubris to suppose humans are immune to natural laws that seem to apply to everything else.

[hnbad]

We know that poverty, high mortality, lack of education and lower social and legal status for women are factors contributing to net population growth. We also claim to be interested in fixing these problems globally - even the most zealous defenders of capitalism are quick to cite statistics intended to demonstrate a decline in global poverty.

On the other hand we have people panicking about population decline because 1) our economy (including many pension systems) is built on the obviously unsustainable paradigm of infinite growth and 2) some people have very unhealthy feelings about the relative proportions of arbitrary demographic groups because of race essentialist bunk-science that is still being regurgitated by people who benefit from sowing division along those lines to distract from themselves.

[zktruth]

Lol what? Since when is asserting "finite resources will eventually be unable to sustain exponential growth" disproven by observing that "Yeah, well, they haven't yet"?

100 years is virtually no time at all, I'm having a hard time believing you're not making a joke with your optimism being that you think we have at least that long.

[XorNot]

For roughly the same reason that "if I keep driving in a straight line, I'll crash into the tree at the end of my street" is disproven by the many years it hasn't yet...because it turns out the car has a steering wheel and I can turn when I reach the corner.

[hmmmcurious1]

The steering wheel in the case of overpopulation being a general reduction of living standards in the best case and widespread genocide and refugee crisises in the worst case.

[swiftcoder]

The steering wheel in the case of overpopulation is gentrification. Turns out folks with all their basic needs met have way fewer children than folks who are barely scraping out an existence.

[jodrellblank]

Enjoy reading about irrigation, greenhouses, mechanised farming, crop rotation, artificial fertiliser, herbicide, pesticide, the Haber-Bosch process, artificial selection, genetic engineering, futures contracts, state subsidies, refrigeration, salting, pickling, freeze-drying, vacuum sealing, National cheese reserves, food banks, and more!

[dreghgh]

No, not true. Many societies in the world have voluntarily reduced reproduction to the point where population growth would be zero, except for improvements in longevity.

These changes largely pre-date small recent drops in living standards, having taken place at the end of unprecedented runs of improvements in health and quality of life.

[hmmmcurious1]

And how will you deal with the societies whose populations are booming in poverty and whom will desire to share your living standards? All the excess population from latin america, south east asia and africa will soon be displaced north by climate change

[immibis]

Zoomers call it "copium". Believing whatever has to be believed for peace of mind, even though it's logically not true.