[lysace]

We presume that things that have been stable for hundreds of years will continue to be stable by just some sheer force of history. This is a falsehood.

See also: the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect

> The Lindy effect (also known as Lindy's law) is a theorized phenomenon by which the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things, like a technology or an idea, is proportional to their current age.

[asplake]

Implying an memoryless distribution (eg exponential) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memorylessness

In the absence of other information it might be as good a basis as any?

[lysace]

Honestly? Your comment makes me feel like I'm in a Curb your enthusiasm show.

Except I'm not and much more clever people are working this brand new world, and I really hope they get it right.

[d0mine]

More likely outcome (at least short-medium term for the next [premature] election) is the return to the status quo. It works as follows: when population is starting to see through your BS, make things much worse so that people will long for how things were before. Much less likely outcome is “little man” becoming the great dictator. Though it is a win-win for people with the real power either way.

[watwut]

You can't have return to status quo. Too much of checks and balances were already destroyed. Even if people started to long for what was before, which is something conservative people just don't yet, it would be impossible now.

President can be lawless and can retaliate hard toward his opposition. Supreme court approved that. That is reality now. It means Republicans can't allow opposition to get power again else they will be in the dame danger ... and it means there will be no real opposition.

When the party can destroy companies that sued them and fire regulators that forced their company obey the law at least a little, the game is lost.

[archagon]

I bet that's what a lot of people thought in 1933 as well.

[Volundr]

Honestly I'm getting pretty worried. We just had the current administration sell a bunch of young men into slavery in a El Salvador (they will be doing forced hard labor) then openly state in a court filings that they had no evidence of these men committing crimes, and still MAGA seems fine with this.

I don't know that there's anything Trump can do at this point that will lose him support.

[el-salvador]

> We just had the current administration sell a bunch of young men into slavery in a El Salvador.

El Salvador has different prison systems for gang members and for other convicts. The prison they were sent to has a higher security level and is more strict, so they don't participate in the work program.

[impendingchange]

How did MAGA become so rabid during the last administration???

[tim333]

I'm not American but try to be a neutral observer. Obviously the polarized media didn't help but there were a couple or reasonable issues. One the border - apparently there were more illegals turning up than US citizens being born and the Biden admin seemed determined to let it go on to the extent that you did have gangs of South American criminals taking over. That bunch sent to El Salvador probably were 95% illegal immigrant criminal gang members and it's not that outrageous to kick them out, although more due process would be a good thing.

Also the whole trans thing - to the majority of people guys thinking they are girls is a bit weird and doing surgery on kids on that basis probably a bad idea. But the dems not only promoted that but the idea you should be cancelled or lose your job if you spoke what you thought. I mean I would have been tempted to vote them out although I'm not right wing.

[heavymetalpoizn]

haha give it a few years and you will want a non Earth hacker news :)

this planet is rotten to the core if someone figures out space travel try scarcity/hierarchy deconditioning for 1k generations and relocate and try elsewhere maybe?

but earth can't be fixed forget HN

[lysace]

Earth is fine. US is obviously currently not fine.

[billy99k]

Heh. It's ridiculous to believe that this only changed with the new administratoon.