[dragonwriter]

He can't run within the Constitution if it isn't changed. OTOH, his concern about whether his actions are Constitutional and the ability and willingness of any other institution to impose meaningful consequences on his unconstitutional acts don't support the conclusion that his future actions will be limited to what the Constitution allows.

[stickfigure]

A constitutional amendment requires ratification by 3/4 of the states. Even getting one proposed requires 2/3 of both houses of congress. This is not going to happen.

Simply ignoring the constitution and cancelling the vote? There's no way he will be able to shift the Overton window that far in ~3 years.

[dragonwriter]

> Simply ignoring the constitution and cancelling the vote?

How about ignoring the Constitution and just running anyway?

> There's no way he will be able to shift the Overton window that far in ~3 years.

Yeah, even totalitarians these days hold elections for show. I absolutely expect that there will formally be an election in 2028.

[kelnos]

> How about ignoring the Constitution and just running anyway?

What does that even mean? He can certainly mount a campaign, and the RNC delegates could even all pick him at the convention, but elections are run by the states, and they are under no obligation to violate the constitution by allowing his name on the ballot or counting write-in votes for him.

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the shittiest red states in the US would put him on anyway, but I sincerely hope it wouldn't be enough for him to win.

Even if somehow he did win a 2028 election, Congress has to certify the results, and, depending on the partisan makeup at the time of certification, that could be a non-starter.

And even if that doesn't stop him, even with the current composition of SCOTUS, I find it hard to believe they'd allow him to remain in office for a third term. Of course, courts can be ignored; then it's up to the military, and then we've truly lost.

There are so many ways pushing Trump as the 2028 candidate could blow up in their faces, I don't think even the GOP is stupid enough to allow that to happen, regardless of what Trump's base wants.

> I absolutely expect that there will formally be an election in 2028.

There isn't "an" election. There are 51 elections, run by each state and by DC. I think this is one of the few strengths of our electoral system when it comes to federal elections: making elections into a totalitarian sham means subversion on a difficult level. Blue states will never bow to that, red states don't have to (as they'll already vote red), and there's so much scrutiny on the swing states that it would be incredibly difficult to pull off.

[dragonwriter]

> What does that even mean? He can certainly mount a campaign, and the RNC delegates could even all pick him at the convention, but elections are run by the states, and they are under no obligation to violate the constitution by allowing his name on the ballot or counting write-in votes for him.

The majority of states are GOP governed, and are unlikely to disqualify their parties nominee even if they are Constitutionally ineligible. As for other states, the federal courts already stopped them from removing Trump from the primary ballot in 2024 over state determination of constitutional ineligibility, why wouldn't an even-more-Trump-appointee-dominated federal judiciary do the same in 2028, leaving ineligibility determinations to the Congress when it judges the electoral vote?

[vkou]

> There's no way he will be able to shift the Overton window that far in ~3 years.

Given how far it's shifted in two months, how far it shifts every day, and given that there are 46 more months to go, I wouldn't hold my breath on that.

[labster]

3/4 of all states not currently in rebellion have to approve amendments. Already states like California and New York are displaying suspicious DEI tendencies, unlike the patriotic states around the Gulf of America. What if they start rebelling against our elected leader?

[archagon]

https://www.thirdtermproject.com/third-term has some ideas:

> Constitutional Amendment: The U.S. Constitution can be amended by an act of Congress. Republicans must publicly get behind the third-term project.

> Running as Vice President: President Trump can run as Vice President with a space filler as President in 2028. Perhaps Donald Trump Jr. could run on a Trump/Trump ticket before gracefully resigning on Jan. 21, 2028 after securing victory. This plan while unorthodox would show that MAGA cannot be stopped by any procedural rule.

> Supreme Court Ruling: The 22nd Amendment bans anyone from serving two terms in office, but it is not completely clear if that refers to two presidential terms under any circumstances or two consecutive presidential terms. There are legal challenges in the works to clear up the ambiguity regarding the 22nd Amendment. The conservative rule-of-law justices on the Supreme Court would be able to settle this once and for all, making it clear that the 22nd Amendment would allow Trump a third term as it would only be his second consecutive term.

[archagon]

Also, Bannon: "We're working on it."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politic...

[gizzlon]

Are you 100% sure there are no obscure laws or something that can be used to postpone an election somehow? :(

How about simply refusing to accept a loss, calling the election rigged and fake..

Or simply putting a puppet as the candidate. Believe Putin did this some years ago.

[vkou]

He wouldn't need a law. He'd just do what he wants, some judge will rule it illegal, and he'll ignore the ruling. That playbook has worked up until this point, why stop?

Elections would be held, but there's no reason to assume their outcome will be respected.

[nullify88]

Start a war perhaps? Taking an example from the Netanyahu playbook.

[dragonwriter]

> Start a war perhaps?

Or just declare that one already exists because of a foreign invasion or attack. Which he has already done once in the past week (as a pretext for invoking the Alien Enemies Act), and has given pretty clear signals (via his "fentanyl is a WMD" order) that he intends to do again, more broadly.

[kelnos]

A constitutional amendment to change presidential term limits is essentially impossible to get ratified.

The states run the elections, not the federal government, so any state that actually is faithful to the constitution will not put him on the ballot in 2028 (and will not count votes where he's written in), regardless of what he tries to do. Hopefully that's more than 270 electoral votes worth of states.