[tobias3]

With rational investors I doubt it. Space launch market size is like 20 billion. One launch is 70 million and they had 133 of them in 2024. Times two (currently at half market share) this would be 18 billion.

That does not take into account that they are increasing the market size themselves with Starlink.

And with Starlink it remains to be seen if that can be profitable. I doubt it. The Starlink satellites deorbit every 5 years and need to be replaced (CapEx+++).

This is compared to the trillion+ EV market.

[bryanlarsen]

Shotwell has claimed that Starlink is cash-flow-positive. They also have >5 million subscribers. ARPU is likely > $1000.

Both Starlink and Starship are >$5B programs. SpaceX has not raised nor borrowed near enough money to fund both of those programs, indicating that they've got sufficient cash flow to mostly self-fund both of them as well as pay the salaries of >13,000 employees.