[borgdefenser]

To me, it is the easiest trade in the world right now. Long NVDA on a market volatility spike. "AI is dead", "the high is in".

It is obvious to me we are going to get to "AGI" in this bull run. Maybe it is complete hype and bullshit marketing but we are going to get to someone releasing a model they claim is AGI. That is really why I don't see what the point is in comparing this to the dotcom. Dotcom was really a bandwidth problem that just needed to get sorted out because my telephone line was basically busy from 1995 to 2001. There wasn't this AGI narrative that once crossed you can price in any valuation you want.

There is a huge bubble and irrational exuberance in quantum computing stocks right now. Those have nothing to do with reality. That looks like dotcom level stupid.

NVDA is not even a bubble, it is just a bull market.

[symbolicAGI]

Cisco Systems declined 89% from its dot-com peak to its bottom during the crash.

Expect the same for Nvidia.

The huge datacenter orders for redundant infrastructure will start postponing and cancelling this year. That is a falsifiable prediction.

[0xDEAFBEAD]

>Maybe it is complete hype and bullshit marketing but we are going to get to someone releasing a model they claim is AGI.

>...

>There wasn't this AGI narrative that once crossed you can price in any valuation you want.

And due to the strength of this "bullshit marketing" "narrative", you can be sure there will be a greater fool to sell your shares to. Where have I heard that before?

A more realistic bullshit-marketing scenario: OpenAI releases a product they claim as "AGI" purely for marketing purposes, everyone gets disappointed as they realize "this is it?", share prices drop.

The story of Cisco illustrates that moats matter. There aren't any in AI, as far as I can tell.

If AGI for software development is actually invented, one of the first uses will be to wreck Nvidia's moat.

[Imustaskforhelp]

I just tried using cursor to create a simple ffmpeg golang youtube segment cut and download and oh my god it fumbled so hard. Wasted one hour of my time.

I personally don't know but claude 3.7 (maybe its placebo) but claude 3.7 in the web works way better than cursor agent or any other thing.

We are talking about a 500 lines of codebase at max and its fumbling so hard , I don't think it can replace 100% of us with "vibe coding" , I have started to break my task into very smaller steps and then use AI for that and then start to integrate it myself

[Imustaskforhelp]

AGI just feels weird.

What does AGI really mean?

The r/singularity guys are going bonkers over gemini's ai studio experimental image photoshop-esque capabilities but my prompts don't really work that nicely I suppose & creates really shitty images.

[automatic6131]

This is my quant