|
The entire industry is in a very cart-before-the-horse mode here because this is less "cool new tech being able to mature" and more "frantic economic bubble that happens to manifest through new tech" New tech tends to start with garage scale startups and targeting the enthusiasts, the experimenters, the hobbyists, the ones willing to put the effort into playing with it, map what is and isn't possible, and file off the rough edges. And when you're making a product like that, you probably have to package and market it entirely differently-- a world of datasheets, programmer's references, and schematics, to give that audience the tools to get the most out of it. If and when you're lucky, you get to the VisiCalc moment, when someone finds a way to deliver a mainstream value proposition so compelling that people line up waving their Mastercards. There's a 200% chance that value proposition will not be the one you put on the marketing flyer to sell the kit to early-adopters, and it may not even come from the firms who launched the market in the first place. Apple, Microsoft, and OpenAI are all trying to short-circuit that process. You can't just throw a trillion dollars at a product and shove their early-stage products in front of customers and expect to magically win the future. It's like trying to make desktop computing happen in 1977 by busting into every house in the country, bolting an Imsai 8080 to random appliances unsolicited, and telling them to enjoy their new computing-enabled future. |