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And every time the commentariat dismisses it with the trope that it’s the same as the other times.

It’s not the same as the other times. The naysayers might be the same elitists as the last time. But that’s irrelevant because the moment is different.

It’s not even an abstraction. An abstraction of what? It’s English/Farsi/etc. text input which gets translated into something that no one can vouch for. What does that abstract?

You say that they can learn about the lower layers. But what’s the skill transfer from the prompt engineering to the programming?

People who program in memory-managed languages are programming. There’s no paradigm shift when they start doing manual memory management. It’s more things to manage. That’s it.

People who write spreadsheet logic are programming.

But what are prompt engineers doing? ... I guess they are hoping for the best. Optimism is what they have in common with programming.