[torginus]

Hate to be the guy to bring it up but Jevons paradox - in my experience, people are much more eager to build software in the LLM age, and projects are getting started (and done!) that were considered 'too expensive to build' or people didn't have the necessary subject matter expertise to build them.

Just a simple crud-ish project needs frontend, backend, infra, cloud, ci/cd experience, and people who could build that as one man shows were like unicorns - a lot of people had a general how most of this stuff worked, but lacked the hands on familiarity with them. LLMs made that knowledge easy and accessible. They certainly did for me.

I've shipped more software in the past 1-2 years than the 5 years before that. And gained tons of experience doing it. LLMs helped me figure out the necessary software, and helped me gain a ton of experience, I gained all those skills, and I feel quite confident in that I could rebuild all these apps, but this time without the help of these LLMs, so even the fearmongering that LLMs will ;make people forget how to code' doesn't seem to ring true.

[namaria]

I think the blind spot here is that, while LLMs may decrease the developer-time cost of software, it will increase the lifetime ownership cost. And since this is a time delayed signal, it will cause a bullwhip effect. If hiring managers were mad at the 2020 market, 2030 will be a doozy. There will be increased liability in the form of over engineered and hard to maintain code bases, and a dearth of talent able to undo the slopcode.