[Akarnani]

if we are not going to export dollars, and we are going to make countries spend more of thier own money, then thier cost of borrowing will go up, they will need to rotate out of dollar assets and then traders who use the carry trade will need to unwind them as the source of borrowing (other countries very low interest rates) are no longer very low, as we now see in UK, Germany, and Japan—each hitting very fast highs for interest rates for their govt debt.

It's much more straightforward math then reading of political or vibes tea leaves.

[biofox]

Not knowing much economics, I'm struggling to parse this sentence. ELI5 please?

[chneu]

A lot of the value of the USD is that it's the defacto currency for oil and other markets.

Other countries do business in dollars. This makes the dollar valuable as a trade currency. This means large foreign governments like(and need) to hold large amounts of USD.

The confidence in the USD is dropping very quickly, especially in Europe and Asia. This means countries will move to do business in other currencies, as those currencies will be viewed as more stable(or whatever other reason).