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by dserban 458 days ago
Don't rely on gut feeling or anecdotal evidence, there's good data you can look at.

Over a few years, I came to rely on proxy indicators that I found to be reliably in sync with the strength / weakness of the job market for software engineers.

One of these indicators is the business spending index (it has an official name, something about purchasing managers' sentiment index or similar). CNBC tends to show it a lot these days, you can't miss it.

Another one is "US Auto Loans Delinquent by 90 or More Days (I:USALD90)" which is a very good "finger to the wind" for how the overall economy is doing, since everyone needs a car.

Neither of these indicators are looking good these days.

1 comments

Lovely suggestion, I'll have a look at the USALD90 ticker, I'm in the EU, so I also use the PMI but "Eurozone" Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), anyone can have a look here and get a basic idea - https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/manufacturing-pmi, just go to maximum time window.