[araes]

Generally correlates with my own view on the subject. After reading two USDA reports on the subject "Chickens and Eggs" [1] and "Egg Markets Overview" [2] it seemed like the markets are not responding to actual supply / demand issues. The losses, while large "sounding" (30 million), are not really that enormous in the context of 369 million egg laying flock, down 2% from the previous year. And most of the losses were heavily constrained to the Ohio (44%) / Illinois (22%) area.

[1] https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/...

[2] https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdf

[thegrim33]

The article you're commenting on states that 115 million egg-laying hens were culled, not 30 million.

[pests]

I admit I have not read the article yet but I have done independent research into these stats previously a few weeks ago. I found the 30m quoted number is the monthly cull amount. I have seen many references to the 115m or similar numbers but have no idea over what time period. I had my own ~120m number come up from my calculations: The industry claims it takes 4-6 months to clean, disinfect, hatch and re-grow, and get the chickens to egg-laying age. If you take the ~30m and ~4-6m period, you end up around ~120-180m "missing" egg-laying chickens in the flock at any time assuming this replacement is taking place at expected levels.

[Jtsummers]

The article's 115 million is over 3 years. Your 30 million monthly represents one sampling period within that same 3 year period.

[genewitch]

Us cull numbers in 2024 were between 130mm and 180mm depending on who is saying the numbers.

But I heard our flock numbers in that period were 10 times that. So I'm not sure what to think.

I do know it was easy to get chicks this year, so that confused me even more.

Perhaps the lack of grocery eggs was because they were incubated instead?

I don't know.

[SoftTalker]

> Perhaps the lack of grocery eggs was because they were incubated instead?

Grocery eggs aren't even fertilized.

[ryao]

Some are:

https://www.delish.com/food-news/a63842548/what-are-fertile-...

You will find a number of people who have claimed to have hatched a number of types of birds from store eggs, including chickens.

[genewitch]

where do chickens come from? eggs! If one needs more chickens, one could let the eggs be fertilized and then incubate those eggs. all you need is a rooster in good health. Eggs that are incubated in this way won't be in the grocery store in cartons, because they will be chickens instead.

[pests]

I have since read the article and you are correct, thank you.