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by diogenes_atx 469 days ago
Is crypto a scam? It basically works as advertised, so technically it's not a scam.

But the real question to consider is whether society is better off with crypto. Using cost-benefit analysis, we can draw up a simple balance sheet showing the positive benefits and the negative externalities:

POSITIVE SOCIAL BENEFITS

1. Money can be transferred from one person to another without intermediaries such as banks.

2. It provides an alternative to hyper-inflating currencies in places like Venezuela.

NEGATIVE SOCIAL COSTS

1. Data centers waste enormous amounts of energy mining crypto.

2. Crypto facilitates useless financial speculation and criminal activity, e.g., ransomware payments, illicit commerce, etc.

In the final analysis, the benefits are rather small, whereas the costs are significant and will continue to grow as the crypto industry expands.

6 comments

I still don't see why on earth I'd need crypto for "1. Money can be transferred from one person to another without intermediaries such as banks."

Especially as people deal with real fiat currency. Let's say I am at a restaurant. I pay $200. My friend wants to give me $100 for their part of the bill. They'd have to convert $100 to 0.00115987 BTC. Transfer those to me and I convert 0.00115987BTC back to $100. This will incur losses. So I ain't even getting my money's worth.

Or alternatively my friend sends me a wire from their bank account to my bank account and I receive it within seconds. This is country dependent but e.g. here in HK FPS takes 2 seconds and costs nothing. SEPA Fast Payment in Europe is similar as is Australia's NPP or Singapore's FAST etc etc etc. For international my banks all provide free SWIFT transfers. Not instant, takes 1-2 days but hey. Free of charge send and receive for my bank accounts here.

It's a technical solution that can easily be done by banks and banking regulators and doesn't need another 'currency' as intermediary.

> 1. Money can be transferred from one person to another without intermediaries such as banks.

By replacing them with the intermediary of cryptocurrency exchanges and the blockchain itself - both of which charge fees on transfers which are often significantly higher than traditional banks. Is this actually a benefit?

> 2. It provides an alternative to hyper-inflating currencies in places like Venezuela.

Can you point to any evidence that cryptocurrency is actually used as a medium of exchange within these countries? Or is it primarily a means of capital flight?

WRT. negative social costs, I'd add that the anonymous and irreversible nature of cryptocurrency transactions leaves consumers with little to no recourse if they're scammed or make a mistake.

> By replacing them with the intermediary of cryptocurrency exchanges and the blockchain itself - both of which charge fees on transfers which are often significantly higher than traditional banks. Is this actually a benefit?

Your puny brain can't grasp the 4D chess here... it's just like how those Federal agencies are so bloated, that completely bypassing them will fix everything (hint: follow the money -- who's going to get rich when they replace the "bloated" middleman with their own infrastructure? In the case of crypto, it rhymes with boin-case).

Can’t speak for Venezuela but I know it is fairly common in Argentina to use crypto for currency exchange and a hedge against inflation. Not sure about straight commerce but sure it happens as well.
Can someone help me understand: in the Venezuelan example, wouldn’t holding USD be the same as an inflation hedge if you live in Venezuela?

In countries that have strict currency control so you can’t hold USD at all, wouldn’t those areas also prevent you from buying crypto?

Do Venezuela s banks not allow you to open an account for USD, but allow you to on ramp into crypto currencies?

I think the problem is also "Venezuelan banks". Bank runs tend to happen in these countries. A bank run is when people expect a bank to collapse, so they pull out money, forcing the bank into debt, and actually collapsing them. The patch for this is government insurance but Venezuelans likely don't trust their gov enough. Bank runs happen plenty in uninsured finance e.g. crypto too, but crypto exchanges today are more stable.

So crypto helps as an alternative method of holding money. You can buy/sell in USDT over some wallet or exchange. Your wallet is your own, in your device. The government can make it illegal, but that doesn't mean they can stop you. It doesn't collapse, but there's always the risk of being robbed, as with cash or jewelry.

"works as advertised, so technically it's not a scam."

It often does not work as advertised. It is not an efficient form for transferring money compared to say, Wise. I used to be able to buy a game off Steam or a burger off a crypto wallet, but neither of these things are available today.

So the use case then becomes that they hodl on to something that increases in value in time. But that sounds a little like a scam as well.

Stablecoins are in actual use and not a scam, but they're effectively USD to USD, at a loss.

I'm not a crypto guy, but I wonder if:

>Data centers waste enormous amounts of energy mining crypto.

is still as relevant in the era of proof of stake and such?

If you're not Etheruem, yes.
Maybe a better analysis would be placing it between other industries to compare its uselessness/usefulness?