[eesmith]

I don't think the author suggest a 10x-or-bust dichotomy. From the end of the piece:

> I expect LLMs have definitely been useful for writing minor features or for getting the people inexperienced with programming/with a specific library/with a specific codebase get started easier and learn faster. They've been useful for me in those capacities. But it's probably like a 10-30% overall boost, plus flat cost reductions for starting in new domains and for some rare one-off projects like "do a trivial refactor".

That "10-30% overall boost" matches your "20% more productive" pretty well.