[fsckboy]

>Betting on the Pope was the original prediction market; 500 years before Polymarket, the Vatican fought to stop gambling on papal affairs.

just to be clear, the article offers no evidence that there was not prior gambling art than the papal enclaves. cockfighting, bullfighting, gladiators, horseracing, was there no organized betting? in terms of prediction markets specifically, once there is organized betting, did it never extend to "current events"?

just as a slightly topical aside, the market for "oil drilling" is mathematically equivalent to a (stock) options market. it doesn't take much for markets to uncover probability and statistics.

[pimlottc]

I feel like these sorts of turns-of-phrase, like "_blank_ was the original _blank_", are increasingly used like memes without any real thought of whether they are make sense or are correct. People are afraid to write without ornamentation, regardless of whether it adds anything meaningful. It's added to meet some sort of perceived standard of "good writing", in an effort to stand out from the crowd.

[ohgr]

There was sports betting going on far far before Jesus showed up. The Romans allowed it and the Holy Roman Empire and the catholics let it carry on.

Also dice games were popular for private betting.