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Sure, and I apologize if I came across as condescending or rude. You raise interesting points. I'd propose a wager, but I'm not sure what the terms ought to be. In general, I think that procedural thinking is a problem that is basically already cracked, and that all (or nearly all) hard problems that the 99.5th percentile human can solve, in any given domain, will be soluble by artificial intelligences in the near enough future. Five years, I think, would be a wild over-estimate. Maybe two? I also think that, as a general rule, "prediction = intelligence" and that the breadth, accuracy, and extensibility of one's predictive capabilities is essentially correlated with just how intelligent one is. It doesn't matter how it happens; it can be a black box. Humans, to be sure, are black boxes. I think that scientists have been trying to simulate the nematode c.elegans brain for about two decades, and as far as I know they still haven't succeeded, despite it only having 900 neurons. |